arXiv Machine Learning

Prediction-powered inference for time series across space

arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Chronos-2: A foundation model for multivariate time series forecasting

Chronos-2 is a foundation model for multivariate time‑series forecasting that captures interactions among multiple series and heterogeneous covariates, enabling zero‑shot probabilistic forecasts without task‑specific tuning. It achieves state‑of‑the‑art accuracy, improving skill scores by 5.2 percentage points and win rates by 10 percentage points over leading baselines, while being computationally efficient—generating forecasts for 100 series in under one second on a single mid‑range GPU. The model demonstrates strong performance across diverse scientific domains such as infectious‑disease forecasting, macroeconomics, carbon‑flux prediction, and runoff simulation, matching or surpassing specialized methods.

By Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur, Jaris K\"uken, Andreas Auer, Boran Han, Pedro Mercado, Syama Sundar Rangapuram, Huibin Shen, Lorenzo Stella, Xiyuan Zhang, Mononito Goswami, Shubham Kapoor, Danielle C. Maddix, Pablo Guerron, Florian Saupe, Markus Reichstein, Tony Hu, Junming Yin, Nick Erickson, Prateek Mutalik Desai, Hao Wang, Huzefa Rangwala, George Karypis, Yuyang Wang, Michael Bohlke-Schneider
arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 24

AgroBench: A Reproducible Multimodal Benchmark for Weakly Supervised Crop Yield Learning from County Statistics and Pixel Observations

AgroBench is a reproducible benchmark that converts U.S. county-level crop yield statistics into weakly supervised pixel‑level crop time series. The data generation pipeline fuses USDA yield data with land cover masks, Sentinel‑2 and Sentinel‑1 imagery, climatic variables, and terrain information to produce multimodal sequences for individual crop pixels across the growing season. The benchmark includes over 13 million observations from 788,654 crop pixels, covering 5,107 county‑year combinations for five major U.S. crops from 2017 to 2024, and establishes a Leave‑One‑Year‑Out evaluation protocol with baseline machine learning results.

By Udaiveer Singh, Rajiv Ranjan, Shashank Tamaskar, Dharmendra Saraswat
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 22

Forecasting the Number of Harvest-ready Fruits of Sweet Peppers Using Multimodal Time-Series Data

Accurate yield forecasting at the individual-plant level is critical for precision agriculture and supply-chain planning, yet public datasets capturing both visual growth dynamics and per-plant measurement labels are scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel, annotated image time-series dataset of 691 sweet pepper plants monitored over two growing seasons, comprising 4837 images with per-plant fruit counts categorized by maturity.