The article discusses how AI foundation models trained on weather and climate data are increasingly fine‑tuned for a wide range of Earth science tasks beyond traditional weather forecasting. It highlights that current evaluations rely mainly on benchmark skill metrics, which assess forecast accuracy but not the models’ representation of underlying physical processes, a gap that becomes critical under changing climate conditions. The authors propose five priorities for physical evaluation—covering training data, fine‑tuning, behavioral testing, mechanistic interpretability, and output validation—and recommend three actions for the next decade: open AI‑ready evaluation datasets, a shared physics‑based reporting standard, and a dedicated research program on model safety.
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models across nowcasting, medium-range, and subseasonal-to-sea...
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
arXiv:2608. 09948v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: No single AI weather model excels at all variables, pressure levels, and lead times.
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states. Yet in a warming world, improving early warnings of extreme heat is an increasingly critical challenge.
arXiv:2603. 22320v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: For decades, physics-based climate models have been used to provide insights for climate decision-making.
The paper presents Laxmi, a retrained version of the AIFS weather model that uses satellite-based precipitation observations instead of ERA5 reanalysis data. Laxmi achieves a 19% improvement in global probabilistic accuracy, reduces drizzle overprediction by 33%, and boosts the 95th percentile Brier skill score by 57%. In a case study of 10 Indian tropical storms, Laxmi accurately forecasted 150 mm event-total precipitation in 7 events, outperforming both the original AIFS and the leading physical model IFS.
arXiv:2603. 22320v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: For decades, physics-based climate models have been used to provide insights for climate decision-making.
arXiv:2610.18378v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Applying process-based Earth science models to new sites and questions often requires expert calibration decisions. Reliable delegation to language-mod...
arXiv:2607. 28220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states.
arXiv:2607. 20778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Weather forecasting foundation models (FMs) are increasingly fine-tuned to predict air quality, offering fast global pollution forecasts at lower computational cost than conventional chemical transport models.