arXiv Machine Learning

Odds-Shift Slippage in One-vs-Rest Rankers: Diagnosing and Repairing Reweighting-Induced Top-K Errors

arXiv AI
Oct 2

False Floors: LLM Safety Routing Evaluations Break Under Distribution Shift

The paper examines safety routers—systems that route user requests to different language models—and finds that their performance degrades significantly when evaluated under distribution shift. In standard benchmarks, routers appear effective because the best single model is chosen from the same evaluation data, but when the data distribution changes, the routing advantage diminishes or disappears. The study quantifies this bias across multiple safety corpora, showing that routers offer little benefit under realistic shift conditions and that recognition‑based defenses can be undermined by attackers who know the model being used.

By Amit Singh Bhatti, Vishal Vaddina
arXiv AI
Oct 7

Toward Alignment Scaling Laws: A Framework and First Preregistered Measurements

The paper proposes a framework for studying how alignment difficulty scales with model size, treating alignment as a family of measurable scaling relations for different risk categories. It introduces operational definitions of burden, distinguishes observed, audited, and true alignment, and proves that the largest exponent among corrected risks determines long‑run behavior. The authors preregistered and applied the protocol to public data, finding scaling exponents for attack success, truthfulness, dispositions, sycophancy, and a backdoor, and released interactive browser games to illustrate the laws.

By Jeremy Canale
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Optimal Recovery Meets Bayesian Learning: Where Worst-Case Bounds Pay Off

The paper shows that Worst‑Case Optimal Recovery (OR) and Bayesian learning solve the same Gaussian‑quadratic‑Hilbert problems, linking the radius of information to a nugget‑optimized Gaussian process posterior variance. It evaluates three Bayesian systems, demonstrating that OR can outperform Bayesian methods in certain calibration and reproducibility metrics, yet split‑conformal and other approaches can beat OR in interval scoring, especially under covariate shift. The authors propose matching the guarantee tool to the data regime and auditing that regime first.

By Gordei Verbii