arXiv Machine Learning

Foresee to Trade: Forecast-Augmented Policy Optimization for Portfolio Management

The paper introduces Forecast-Augmented Relative Policy Optimization (FRPO), a method that enhances portfolio management by jointly supervising asset opportunities and account-level trading decisions. FRPO employs a Financial State Head to learn future relative-return targets and a Same-Path Group-Relative Optimization to compare trading trajectories, with an Adaptive Gate coordinating auxiliary supervision. Experiments on DJIA30, TOPIX Core30, and three investment-style portfolios show that FRPO outperforms competing methods in mean cumulative and annualized returns across all settings.

arXiv AI
Oct 16

Plan Before You Trade: Inference-Time Optimization for RL Trading Agents

FinPILOT is a plugin inference‑time policy optimization framework that enhances pretrained reinforcement‑learning trading agents by leveraging a multi‑step price forecaster to generate imagined market trajectories. At each decision point, it optimizes the pretrained policy using the forecaster’s predicted price path before executing a trade, without altering the original training pipeline. Across five pretrained policies and multiple market settings, FinPILOT consistently improves total return and Sharpe ratio, with gains increasing as forecast accuracy improves.

By Eun Go, Rohan Deb, Arindam Banerjee
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Cross-Sectional Asset Retrieval via Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning

The paper introduces Future‑Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework that uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision to improve asset retrieval. FASCL’s soft contrastive loss aligns retrieved assets with correlated future returns, and the authors propose a new evaluation protocol to directly assess future trajectory similarity. Experiments on 5,631 US‑listed securities outperform 14 baselines in future return correlation, rank information coefficient, trend consistency, and gross Sharpe ratio across various retrieval depths and basket sizes.

By Hyeongmin Lee, Chanyeol Choi, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Wonbin Ahn, Justin Xu, Srijan Sood, Qingsong Wen, Chun-Li Yang, Yongjae Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 5

DIVINE: Simple Cross-Market Stock Pretraining via Diverse Indicator Reconstruction

DIVINE is a cross‑market pretraining framework for financial time‑series that reconstructs 77 targets derived from 16 standard technical indicators using raw OHLCV data. Trained jointly on six equity markets, its lightweight 0.05M‑parameter encoder outperforms larger pretraining baselines and matches or exceeds larger financial foundation models in downstream stock ranking tasks. The study demonstrates that diverse indicator supervision and cross‑market training yield complementary gains, highlighting that supervision design and market diversity, rather than model size, drive strong transferable financial representations.

By Kuan-Yu Chen, Shu-Cheng Zheng, Yu-Chen Den, Wei-Cheng Liao, Tien-Hao Chang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Financially Guided Deep Portfolio Optimization

arXiv:2605.28853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction cos...

By Rahul Fernandes, Travis Desell
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 30

Can Language Models Learn to Forecast Stock Prices

arXiv:2609.36914v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training has been shown to significantly improve language models' performance on tasks with verifiable outcomes, including mathematical reasoning,...

By Jiacheng Guo, Suozhi Huang, Shuzhen Li, Yunlong Gao, Zerui Cheng, Jason Ge, Shushu Liang, Zihao Li, Hao Lu, Ming Yin, Shilong Liu, Jiashuo Liu, Xu Kuang, Mengdi Wang
arXiv AI
Sep 7

EXAONE Forecast for Finance

EXAONE Forecast for Finance (EXAONE Finance) is a financial time‑series foundation model designed to overcome the limitations of existing models that rely on self‑attention and assume fully observed data. It replaces self‑attention with a causal 1D convolution for temporal mixing and a group‑aware pooling MLP for variate mixing, achieving linear‑time complexity. The model is pretrained on a large, diverse financial corpus and, through masked context augmentation, learns to handle missing data, ultimately topping the FinVerse benchmark across accuracy, ranking, and profitability metrics.

By Seunghan Lee, Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Agent Memory with Episodic Retrieval for Financial Decision-Making

META (Memory Enhanced Trading Agent) is a new agent-based trading framework that augments large language models with episodic memory. It combines specialized indicator agents—such as Trend, MACD, Stochastic, RSI, SMA, AVWAP, and Heikin‑Ashi—with a Decision Agent that fuses their reports, while a Memory module retrieves and updates past trading episodes encoded as market state embeddings with outcomes and reflections. By recalling relevant experiences and adaptively reweighting signals under similar market regimes, META improves directional accuracy and robustness in short‑horizon evaluations, offering regime‑aware, interpretable, and low‑latency decision‑making for financial trading.

By Nuoyue Xu, Jiang Liu, Wenxuan Huang, Xiang Zhang, Juntai Cao, Jiaqi Wei