arXiv:2606. 06360v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions.
Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context.
arXiv:2607. 06757v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making.
arXiv:2606. 02867v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Human behaviour during epidemics affects infectious disease dynamics, but quantifying this remains deeply challenging.
arXiv:2606. 05692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes.
The paper investigates how changes in prompts and persona names affect the behavior of generative agents in an epidemic simulation. It finds that synonymous prompts produce negligible differences, while minor prompt variations and contextual changes do influence outcomes. Persona names, even when imbued with distinct identities, do not significantly alter epidemic results.
arXiv:2605. 26704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points.
arXiv:2603. 07108v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions.
Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics.
arXiv:2505. 14752v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Macro-aligned micro-records are crucial for credible simulations in social science and urban studies.
The paper introduces Influpaint, a denoising diffusion probabilistic model adapted for forecasting influenza incidence. By representing influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images and training on a hybrid dataset of surveillance and simulated trajectories, the model learns a rich distribution of disease dynamics and performs forecasting as a conditional generation task. In retrospective and real‑time evaluations, Influpaint produces realistic, diverse epidemic trajectories and achieves forecast accuracy competitive with leading ensemble methods, especially when trained with 30% surveillance and 70% simulated data.
The Epydemix Agent Framework adds an AI‑friendly layer to the Epydemix Python library for stochastic epidemic modeling. It provides four key features: model and parameter discovery, declarative scenario validation, execution via tested code, and result inspectability, enabling an AI agent to manage the entire modeling workflow from natural‑language input to quantitative outputs. The authors demonstrate the framework with a vaccination strategy case study and evaluate it over 50 agent sessions, showing reductions in turns, output tokens, and cost compared to direct Python use.