Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
arXiv:2606. 07157v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many efforts to ensure frontier AI models are safe rely on monitoring their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning.
arXiv:2503. 14499v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear.
arXiv:2606. 07157v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many efforts to ensure frontier AI models are safe rely on monitoring their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning.
arXiv:2602. 07267v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating the real-world capabilities of AI systems requires grounding benchmark performance in human-interpretable measures of task difficulty.
arXiv:2606. 05080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts.
arXiv:2502. 20502v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have yielded powerful computational models that, by learning from vast amounts of human-generated data, are increasingly posited as approximate models of human cognition.
arXiv:2606. 30182v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI models are rapidly improving at autonomous coding, as shown by benchmark progress and one-off demonstrations such as AI implementing a C compiler.
arXiv:2608. 13417v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autonomous agents are increasingly capable of improving models, systems, and other technical artifacts through long-horizon experimentation.
Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons.
arXiv:2606. 04455v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Current AI benchmarks evaluate agents on task execution within human-designed workflows.
arXiv:2606. 29537v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Existing computer-use benchmarks fail to capture the realism, complexity, and long-horizon demands of real-world computer use, limiting their ability to reveal the limitations of frontier agents.
arXiv:2606. 29537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing computer-use benchmarks fail to capture the realism, complexity, and long-horizon demands of real-world computer use, limiting their ability to reveal the limitations of frontier agents.
arXiv:2605. 08678v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Modern AI progress has been driven by ML methods that are generalizable across settings and scalable to larger regimes.
arXiv:2604. 01363v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based.