arXiv Machine Learning

Same Evidence, Different Target: Decoding How Diagnostic Evidence Bears on Causal Questions from Language-Model States

arXiv:2607. 26929v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The same diagnostic result can support or challenge one causal claim yet fail to address another when the claims concern different populations, outcomes, estimands, pathways, or identifying assumptions.

arXiv AI
Jun 17

CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungs

arXiv:2602. 08939v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models increasingly produce fluent causal explanations, yet they often fail in ways aggregate accuracy cannot diagnose: confusing association with intervention, abandoning correct judgments under pressure, over-refusing valid claims, or answering when evidence is underdetermined.

By Longling Geng, Andy Ouyang, Theodore Wu, Daphne Barretto, Matthew John Hayes, Rachael Cooper, Yuqiao Zeng, Sameer Vijay, Gia Ancone, Ankit Rai, Matthew Wolfman, Patrick Flanagan, Edward Y. Chang