arXiv Machine Learning

Probability Contracts: Accuracy, Coherence, and Decisions Across LLM Interfaces

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Lottery Tickets Are Not Deployment Tickets

arXiv:2607. 27031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reports on how sparsification, compression, and lottery tickets change model behavior have been mixed in the prior literature, with beneficial effects observed in some studies and adverse effects in others.

By Bum Jun Kim
arXiv AI
Sep 7

FinalityBench: An Effect-Level Benchmark for Agent Decisions Under Delayed and Conflicting Financial Finality

FinalityBench is an executable benchmark that tests how agents decide on shipping, re‑capturing, refunding, or waiting when a merchant’s payment processor, ledger, ERP, and bank feed receive delayed, duplicated, dropped, or reordered messages, causing contradictory beliefs about an order. The benchmark uses a hidden canonical event log and faulted delivery streams to generate system views, scoring each episode by the merchant’s terminal economic position relative to a privileged reference. It contains 321 tasks, including 45 twin pairs where all four views are identical yet the correct disposition differs, and evaluates nine programmatic policies, revealing that a ship‑on‑first‑sign policy performs best by accuracy but worst by paired loss, while a runtime‑gated irreversible‑action policy achieves 85.4% accuracy without losing money.

By Abhishek Sharma
arXiv AI
Sep 15

When Should a World Model Move? Loss-Conditioned State Execution

The paper introduces loss‑conditioned state execution, a model‑agnostic technique that decides whether to apply a world model’s proposed state change or keep the current state based on whether the change reduces downstream loss. It formalizes state movability as the existence of a loss‑reducing feasible correction and constructs loss‑specific proposals from predictive distributions, executing them only when a groupwise lower confidence bound on loss improvement is positive. Experiments on forecasting and dynamics benchmarks show that the method accepts updates for a subset of cases, achieving lower bounded loss than persistence or always executing the proposal, and highlights that event predictability and loss‑based decisions must be evaluated separately.

By Jintao Xu, Zhengyu Chen, Ben Zhang, Yongzhi Qi, Jianshen Zhang
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 25

JevOut: Natural Context Can Flip Decision Models

JevOut demonstrates that natural, short additions to the context of decision models can flip their outputs from correct to incorrect, even when the correct answer remains unchanged. By optimizing context additions while keeping the source, question, choices, and gold answer fixed, the study found that 61.4% of initially correct decisions were redirected to a wrong option, with 45% receiving high confidence. Similar fragility was observed across three other decision systems on seven datasets, with flip rates between 64.9% and 73.2%.

By Zixiang Xu
arXiv AI
Sep 2

Invalidation Contracts for Cross-Episode Agent Memory

The paper proposes invalidation contracts to manage cached recovery suggestions in LLM agents, attaching version stamps and cacheability hints to each suggestion so stale entries can be evicted without trial and error. The protocol separates realized savings into validity (protocol‑dependent) and compliance (planner‑dependent), showing that row‑level invalidation can significantly improve first‑try compliance and recover a substantial portion of token costs across multiple models, while table‑level invalidation can be detrimental. The study evaluates the approach across seven models, three serving paths, two domains, and about 9,400 episodes, demonstrating deterministic validity and high eviction precision.

By Michael Wu, Arquimedes Canedo