The paper presents a hybrid neural architecture that blends linear and nonlinear feed‑forward networks for day‑ahead electricity price forecasting. It introduces a partial online learning strategy with warm‑starting and stage‑specific hyperparameters to cut computational time, and employs Bernstein Online Aggregation to combine forecasts. Experiments on six years of major European markets show the method reduces RMSE by 11‑12% and MAE by 14‑17% compared to state‑of‑the‑art benchmarks while lowering computational cost.
arXiv:2510. 16898v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers.
The study evaluates nine foundation model variants against two leading electricity price forecasting benchmarks across Germany, Poland, and Spain for 2021‑2025. Only the TabPFN models consistently outperform the benchmarks in both point and probabilistic accuracy, yet their economic advantage varies with bidding strategy and risk tolerance. The results indicate that foundation models cannot universally replace market‑specific models; their usefulness depends on the chosen architecture and the particular decision problem.
The paper presents a comparative study of six deep learning models—state-space, MLP, RNN, and Transformer-based architectures—for cross-border electricity price forecasting using publicly available data. It focuses on generalization across markets and evaluates performance under low-data target-market conditions (zero-shot, one-shot, few-shot) with a standardized dataset for the Germany‑Luxembourg bidding zone in 2024. Results show that N‑HiTS and NBEATSx perform competitively in limited‑data scenarios, while transformer models achieve comparable accuracy but require more adaptation and tuning, and that careful feature selection and hyperparameter tuning improve performance.
While publicly available electricity market data presents a valuable resource for forecasting research, the field lacks established benchmark datasets for standardized comparison. As a result, many st...
arXiv:2209. 01378v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: An elementary Recurrent Neural Network that operates on p time lags, called an RNN(p), is the natural generalisation of a linear autoregressive model ARX(p).
arXiv:2405.07359v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecast...
The paper presents an online algorithm for multivariate distributional regression tailored to high‑dimensional probabilistic electricity price forecasting. It models conditional means, variances, and dependence structures of 24‑hour day‑ahead prices using coordinate descent and LASSO regularization, enabling scalable estimation in large covariate spaces. A regularized estimation path allows early stopping to prevent overfitting, and the method delivers interpretable, well‑calibrated joint prediction intervals, outperforming benchmarks on German market data.
arXiv:2604. 26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data.
arXiv:2606. 17692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is critical for the reliable and economic operation of modern power systems, under non-stationarity arising from weather variability, calendar effects, and evolving consumption patterns.
arXiv:2511. 09789v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term energy forecasting plays an important role in real-time operational decision-making, such as electricity market bidding and power system dispatch, where both numerical accuracy and correct directional signals are essential.
arXiv:2609.14718v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Demand forecasting is critical in modern industry, offering opportunities to reduce costs and gain competitive advantage through improved inventory man...
The paper benchmarks a range of AI methods—conventional ML, ensemble learning, deep neural networks, recurrent architectures, Transformers, graph models, and hybrid ensemble deep learning—on three renewable energy datasets, including large‑scale wave energy converter (WEC) data and wind farm SCADA measurements. Tree ensembles, particularly Extra Trees, outperform traditional ML and neural predictors on structured WEC layout data, achieving a 63.7% MAE reduction over an MLP baseline. Spatial‑temporal graph networks (STGCN) and an RF‑BiLSTM hybrid further improve forecasting accuracy, with the hybrid model reaching an MAE of 150.5 kW, a 75% reduction over a standalone LSTM and 10% better than STGCN. The study concludes that no single architecture dominates; randomized ensembles excel for structured surrogate modeling, graph networks for explicit spatial interactions, and hybrid recurrent ensembles for combined nonlinear tabular and temporal dynamics.