arXiv Machine Learning

Falsifying Causal Graphs With Outlier Events

arXiv:2607. 12145v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: True causal relationships are rarely known, and inferring causal graphs from data is hard.

arXiv AI
Aug 24

Root cause analysis via difference graph discovery from linear time-series data

The paper investigates root cause analysis for anomalies in linear time-series data by using difference graph discovery. It focuses on effect-defying root causes—variables whose causal coefficients differ between normal and anomalous regimes—within linear discrete-time dynamic structural causal models. The authors adapt existing difference graph methods to the time-series context, evaluate them on simulated data, and apply them to real-world IT and intensive care monitoring datasets to localize causal mechanisms behind anomalous behavior.

By Anouk Ruer, Timoth\'ee Loranchet, Daria Bystrova, Charles K. Assaad
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery

arXiv:2606. 19594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM.

By Th\'eo Saulus, Simon Lacoste-Julien, Dhanya Sridhar
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 15

MuPlon: Multi-Path Causal Optimization for Claim Verification through Controlling Confounding

MuPlon is a new framework for claim verification that models claims and evidence as a fully connected Claim‑Evidence Graph. It tackles two confounding problems—data noise and data biases—by applying a dual causal intervention strategy: a back‑door path that adjusts node weights to reduce noise and strengthen relevant connections, and a front‑door path that extracts key subgraphs, builds reasoning paths, and uses counterfactual reasoning to remove biases. Experiments show that MuPlon surpasses existing methods and achieves state‑of‑the‑art performance.

By Hanghui Guo, Shimin Di, Pasquale De Meo, Zhangze Chen, Jia Zhu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Epidemiological Causal Graph Identification: Challenges, Identifiability and Algorithms

The paper addresses causal discovery in Directed Acyclic Graphs where nodes are either ordinal (modeled with an ordered logit) or follow a one‑parameter exponential family distribution. It proves that the direction of edges between such nodes is identifiable for generic parameter values, extending prior Ordinal‑Poisson results. The authors also propose a score‑based exhaustive search and a masked continuous optimization method using DAGMA, and demonstrate through simulations that these approaches recover orientations that are otherwise unidentifiable under classical structural equation models.

By Sambit Mishra, Yingying Wang, Christine K. Johnson, Urbashi Mitra