arXiv AI

How Does Bayesian Causal Discovery Fail? Characterising Structural Consequences in Linear Gaussian Networks under Latent Confounding

arXiv:2607. 09449v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian causal discovery is widely used for its ability to quantify epistemic uncertainty over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) through posterior inference.

arXiv AI
Aug 26

From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers

The study evaluates 12 instruction‑tuned open‑weight LLMs on six causal‑graph benchmarks, testing five prompting strategies and four confidence sources. Findings show that LLMs tend to over‑predict edges, misclassify indirect or reversed edges as direct, and exhibit high over‑confidence, while conventional confidence estimates are unreliable and agreement signals offer limited improvement. The results suggest LLMs should be used as externally validated soft causal priors rather than definitive causal‑structure evidence.

By Amit Kumar, Elnur Adl Zarabi, Suranjana Trivedy, Zhiqian Chen, Lei Zhang, Kaiqun Fu, Taoran Ji
arXiv AI
Jun 3

Causal Preference Elicitation

arXiv:2602. 01483v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose causal preference elicitation, a Bayesian framework for expert-in-the-loop causal discovery that actively queries local edge relations to concentrate a posterior over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs).

By Edwin V. Bonilla, He Zhao, Daniel M. Steinberg