arXiv AI

A Predict-then-Correct Loop Based on Few-Shot Continuous Contextual Bandit for Demand Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 16354v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retail demand forecasting remains difficult when demand shifts faster than static forecasting models can be retrained, especially in early demand cycles where newly observed labels are sparse.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 8

FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting

Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

CEDAR: Controlled and Event-Driven Demand Forecasting via Residual Decomposition

CEDAR is a two‑stage framework for demand forecasting that incorporates planned actions and external event signals. Stage I uses an Action‑Interleaved Transformer to model controllable state transitions under interventions, while Stage II applies a Residual Correction Module that aligns event descriptions with product context using LLM‑assisted text representations. Experiments on a large Alibaba 1688 dataset show that CEDAR improves simulation accuracy over traditional time‑series forecasting baselines and benefits real‑world budget planning.

By Junjie Meng, Ranxu Zhang, Zi-an Zhang, Shujun Liu, Xiaoning Qi, Xiaozhou Xu, Yanyong Zhang, Hui Xiong, Chao Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 15

High-Frequency Pricing at Scale for E-Commerce

arXiv:2606. 13741v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents the design, development, and implementation of a specialized forecast-then-optimize algorithmic pricing tool for sales campaigns in fashion e-commerce.

By Stefan Birr, Tobias Huelden, Mones Raslan, Adele Gouttes, Andreas Schmitt, Mateusz Koren, Johannes Stephan, Robert Streek, Manuel Kunz, Tim Januschowski
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31

Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits: Bridging Uplift Modeling and Sequential Decision-Making

The paper introduces Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns individual treatment effects, explores uncertain users, and manages budget pacing simultaneously. It derives a per-arrival decision rule from a KKT condition of a Lagrangian relaxation, providing a principled algorithmic foundation. Experiments on the Criteo Uplift dataset show BCCB outperforms offline pipelines and other online baselines, especially when historical data is scarce (below 7,500 observations).

By Abhirami Pillai