arXiv Computation and Language

Predicting Startup Exit from Textual Descriptors - A Computational Linguistics Framework

The paper demonstrates that textual descriptors alone can predict early‑stage startup exits, using a dataset of 7,419 startups over 20 years. By extracting 850 text‑based features and applying supervised learning, the best model (LightGBM) achieved an F1 score of 0.48, while text alone reached 0.30, confirming the predictive power of founder narratives. Feature analysis identified hyping markers—adjectives, jargon, buzzwords—as positively correlated with exit probability, and introduced a quantifiable Hyping Score for venture capital applications.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 20

Converting Expert Deliberation into Financial Signals Through A Context-Aware NLP Pipeline

The paper presents the CDSP (context-conditional deliberation signal pipeline), which transforms investment committee meeting transcripts into structured predictive features. CDSP segments transcripts into topical chunks, assigns asset‑class context labels via a large language model, maps financial keywords to a taxonomy, and adds sentiment polarity and mention frequency features. Using these engineered features on 48 monthly meetings, the best model—combining sentence embeddings with CDSP features—achieves 73% accuracy and a 0.73 F1 score, outperforming a simple stock‑choice baseline, though the improvement is not statistically significant.

By Vivek Batra, Kristin Chen, Sanjiv Das, Samuel Judge, Harshad Khadilkar, Sukrit Mittal, Amir Nasrollahzadeh, Daniel Ostrov, Jacob Sisk
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 11

A Training-Free, Alignment-Free Approach to Corporate Intelligence: Application to SEC Filings

The paper introduces a training‑free, alignment‑free method for corporate intelligence that uses deterministic sparse seed vectors to hash word strings into a fixed high‑dimensional basis. By accumulating these seed vectors across sentence contexts, the authors create corpus‑specific semantic signatures that enable rapid document comparison, issuer fingerprinting, vocabulary shift tracking, and thematic sentence extraction—all on standard CPU hardware. Applied to a multi‑year set of SEC filings, the approach reveals distinct semantic profiles for major corporate events such as Boeing’s 737 MAX crisis, Intel’s supply‑chain disruptions, and Bunge’s acquisition of Viterra, with each profile traceable to its source sentences without any domain‑specific training or LLM inference.

By Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Delpech
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 27

LLM-Based vs. Lexicon-Based Sentiment Signals for Tail-Risk Detection in Meme Stocks

This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 16

Zero-shot narrative detection in social messaging

The paper explores how large language models can detect hidden narratives in social messages without training data. By feeding the models human-written narrative descriptions, performance improves markedly, while automatically generated descriptions or few-shot examples can hurt accuracy. Ensemble techniques, especially majority voting, further boost robustness, and larger models show the best results with less sensitivity to prompts.

By Jes\'us M. Fraile-Hern\'andez, Anselmo Pe\~nas, Patrick Giedemann
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Evaluating Financial Sentiment in the Age of AI

The paper evaluates twelve financial sentiment models—including dictionary-based methods, finance-specific transformers, and open-source large language models—using linguistic and economic validity criteria. General-purpose LLMs match finance-specific transformers in classification performance but do not yield stronger economic relationships. While several models correlate with earnings surprises, none shows a significant link to next‑day stock returns, and performance is strongest for large earnings beats or misses.

By Arslan Bisharat, Oudom Hean
arXiv AI
Jul 21

Detection, Attribution, Narration: An End-to-End Pipeline for Explainable Money Mule Identification

arXiv:2607. 17586v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Money mule accounts are critical facilitators of financial fraud, yet detecting them at scale remains challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of transactional and behavioural data.

By Yuge Zhang, Yuanxing Zhang, Yichao Jin, Khairul Amsyar Mohd Razis, Nicholas Qi An Choo, Kai Yin Anders Wong, Xinyan Tang, Kenneth Zhu Ke, Wee Keong Dennis Lee, Jingyuan Zhao
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

Reliable Financial Named Entity Recognition Under Domain Shift: Confidence Estimation and Selective Prediction

The paper investigates confidence estimation and selective prediction for financial named entity recognition (NER) under domain shift, using a stress test across SEC filings, financial news, and social media. It evaluates BERT and LoRA‑tuned Qwen2.5 models with five inference‑time confidence signals, finding that whole‑output probability is a strong in‑domain error detector but weak out‑of‑domain, while entity‑span probability and self‑consistency remain robust. Abstention can dramatically reduce sentence error on high‑confidence in‑domain data, but offers limited benefit under extreme social‑media shift, suggesting a staged deployment that first detects severe distribution shift before applying confidence gating.

By Zihao Zheng, Baichuan Li, Junyi Yao, Jiayu Long