We propose a novel framework for computing rigorous bounds on the probability that a large language model (LLM) generates harmful output to a given prompt. We study a new application of the Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals to obtain probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds for this problem.
arXiv:2604. 22167v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale.
By Rico Angell, Raghav Singhal, Zachary Horvitz, Zhou Yu, Rajesh Ranganath, Kathleen McKeown, He He
arXiv:2608. 15798v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models are compared by their held-out per-token cross-entropy risk---the quantity scaling laws are fitted to.
By Hanti Lin
arXiv:2607. 19367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Calibration is the primary criterion for evaluating LLM confidence, but it is insufficient: it admits trivially incoherent estimators, depends on the evaluation distribution, and does not test the extent to which the estimation can be interpreted as a consistent, underlying probability function.
By Krish Matta, Atharv Naphade, Andy Zou
arXiv:2608. 10621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent research on Large Language Model (LLM) safety has widely adopted guardrails to identify unsafe LLM outputs.
By Xinzhe Huang, Biwu Yao, Kedong Xiu, Mengnan Zhao, Di Wang, Puning Zhao, Tianhang Zheng
arXiv:2603. 24126v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: When language models are trained by reinforcement learning (RL) to write probabilistic programs, they can artificially inflate their marginal-likelihood reward by producing programs whose data distribution fails to normalise instead of fitting the data better.
By Jacek Karwowski, Younesse Kaddar, Zihuiwen Ye, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Sam Staton
arXiv:2607. 08961v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models increasingly provide labels, evaluations, and feedback for tasks specified in natural language.
By Berkay Anahtarci
arXiv:2604. 06543v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work, we demonstrate that reliable stochastic sampling is a fundamental yet unfulfilled requirement for Large Language Models (LLMs) operating as agents.
By Xiangming Gu, Soham De, Michalis Titsias, Larisa Markeeva, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c, Razvan Pascanu
arXiv:2510. 05566v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks.
By Zhexiao Lin, Yuanyuan Li, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Gao, Michael von Gablenz
arXiv:2606. 04778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safety-aligned Large Language Models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to interventions during inference that redirect generation toward harmful outputs.
By Kyungmin Park, Taesup Kim
arXiv:2607. 03882v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate probabilistic information in natural language.
By Diego Cerda-Mardini, Sarath Chandar, Sreenath Madathil
arXiv:2608. 01320v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Language generation in the limit is a theoretical framework for studying how a generator can learn to produce new valid strings from a stream of positive examples.
By Ziyi Cai, Shuangping Li, Yiheng Shen, Kangning Wang, Peng Zhang