arXiv AI

Routing Probes Can Improve Without New Information: An Exact-Null Audit of Uncertainty Beyond Model Outputs

arXiv AI
1d ago

Auditing Routing Entropy as an Uncertainty Signal in Attention-Residual Transformers

The paper audits whether routing entropy in Attention‑Residual transformer variants (Swin‑Tiny and DeiT‑Small) trained on CIFAR‑10/100 can signal prediction uncertainty beyond model confidence. Three tests examine the presence, consistency, and predictive power of routing signals, while a sensitivity audit measures how much injected effect the probes recover. Results show no significant improvement over confidence alone, with only modest recovery of injected signals and no consistent gains across seeds or metrics.

By Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang, Mingyu Guo, Olaf Maennel, Weitong Chen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Opportunity Is Not Realizability: Selection-Valid Diagnostics for Multi-LLM Routing

arXiv:2608. 08265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Oracle routing measures how much a pool of language models could gain from per-query selection, but the diagnostic has two flaws: testing against a best fixed model selected on the same examples invalidates paired inference, and a full-information oracle sees outcomes no deployable router observes.

By Ibne Farabi Shihab, Abu Sa-Adat Mohamed Moon-Im Al Ahsan, Md Najmus Swaqeeb
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Decodable In-Context State and Model Output Across Training

The paper investigates how a probe can decode in‑context bindings on model errors and how probe‑guided steering can repair them. It tracks probe accuracy, model output, and steering response across public pretraining and post‑training checkpoints, noting that probe accuracy improves during Pythia pretraining and that steering benefits grow with model size. The study also shows that decoders trained on final state or candidate logits do not outperform each other on late‑checkpoint errors, and presents an information‑theoretic counterexample explaining why decodability on errors alone cannot prove discarded output information.

By Manas Venkata Sai Ravulapalli, Samrath Singh Chadha