arXiv Machine Learning

TIDE: Tree-Induced Fine-Grained Diagnostic Evaluation from Model Behaviors

TIDE (Tree-Induced Diagnostic Evaluation) transforms diagnostic evaluation into a behavior-driven decision-tree induction process, enabling fine-grained capability diagnosis of large language models. By recursively building a hierarchical capability tree from benchmark samples and model scores, TIDE identifies nuanced contrasts between models that aggregate metrics miss—such as Claude Opus 4.6 outperforming GPT-5.4 on microeconomic market reasoning while falling behind on contract law reasoning. The method leverages LLM judges to propose splits and uses behavior-based information gain to select them, demonstrating its effectiveness across five models and four benchmarks.

arXiv AI
Oct 16

Evaluating Model Capabilities After Benchmark Saturation

The paper examines whether transcripts of model solutions can reveal capabilities after benchmark scores saturate. By simulating saturation with historical data, the authors test protocols that use only correctly solved transcripts to predict performance on unsaturated items. Pairwise judging of transcripts outperforms other methods, reducing prediction error by 5.3×, though its effectiveness can vary across distribution shifts.

By Morio Hamada, Jehyeok Yeon, Matteo Migliarini, Justin Olive, Magda Dubois
arXiv AI
Jul 10

Rethinking LLM-as-a-Judge: Representation-as-a-Judge with Small Language Models via Semantic Capacity Asymmetry

arXiv:2601. 22588v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are widely used as reference-free evaluators via prompting, but this "LLM-as-a-Judge" paradigm is costly, opaque, and sensitive to prompt design.

By Zhuochun Li, Yong Zhang, Ming Li, Yuelyu Ji, Yiming Zeng, Ning Cheng, Yun Zhu, Yanmeng Wang, Shaojun Wang, Jing Xiao, Daqing He
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 8

Latent Performance Profiling of Large Language Models

arXiv:2605.30018v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) frequently achieve impressive scores on standardized benchmarks, yet accuracy alone offers a limited view of the...

By Tanmoy Chakraborty, Ayan Sengupta, Suparna Bhattacharya, Partha Pratim Chakrabarti, Amlan Chakrabarti, Supratik Chakraborty, Partha Pratim Das, Lipika Dey, Richa Singh, Mayank Vatsa
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 11

Rethinking Verbalized Confidence for LLM-as-a-Judge: A Compatibility Shift on Post-2025 Proprietary Models

The paper argues that verbalized confidence—once viewed as overconfident and coarse—has become the preferred soft‑scoring method for LLM‑as‑a‑Judge on top‑tier proprietary models released after 2025. Experiments on SummEval, AggreFact, and HelpSteer2 across up to 18 LLMs show that log‑probabilities are no longer the best signal, and that adding an overconfidence advisory and self‑debate further improves calibration and robustness. The authors note that these enhancements incur little accuracy loss on post‑2025 models but do affect pre‑2025 ones, highlighting a compatibility shift in how confidence should be measured.

By Yu-Chung Hsiao
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

Anchoring Bias in LLM-as-a-Judge Systems: Prior Scores Compromise Evaluation Independence

The study investigates how prior scores influence large language model (LLM) judgments in the LLM-as-a-Judge paradigm. By testing three prompt conditions—no metadata, revision framing, and anchored metadata containing prior scores—the authors find that prior scores systematically bias evaluations, shifting ratings toward those scores across 192,000 attempts. The bias also affects categorical decisions, blocking 48% of error corrections and flipping 10.18% of correct judgments, and is not mitigated by Chain-of-Thought or a warning, underscoring the need for careful context engineering.

By Ante Kapetanovic, Kemal Altwlkany, Andro Mercep, Tomislav Duricic, Emanuel Lacic