arXiv Machine Learning

Optimal Causal Annotations: An Application to Casenotes in Social Services

arXiv:2502. 10605v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Problem definition: Estimating causal effects of interventions is central to policy and operations, but outcome data are often missing or costly to obtain.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

arXiv:2601. 20819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science.

By Yilin Song, Dan M. Kluger, Harsh Parikh, Tian Gu
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Causal Inference with Unstructured Treatments

arXiv:2608. 00657v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal inference usually concerns a scalar treatment, yet in many problems the treatment is unstructured: a text, an image, or a sequence of clinical decisions.

By Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin Wang
arXiv AI
Aug 12

Expert-Guided g-computation with Large Language Models for Estimating Causal Effects on Timings: Applications to Hospital Quality Improvement

arXiv:2608. 10339v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Hospital quality improvement (QI) programs routinely face multiple candidate interventions to optimize hospital flow, but existing methods struggle to estimate and rank the causal effects of such interventions.

By Patrick Vossler, Jialin Ouyang, F. Richard Guo, Anran Huang, Ali Shojaie, Lucas Zier, Fan Xia, Jean Feng
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 23

Data-Poisoning Audits for Causal Effect Estimation

arXiv:2607. 19692v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Observational causal analyses increasingly pool records across sites, vendors, and collection systems, creating vulnerability to append-only attacks in which plausible records are strategically selected to alter a reported treatment effect.

By Kwangho Kim
arXiv AI
Jun 24

A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

arXiv:2606. 23741v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal reasoning, which encompasses the discovery of causal structures and the inference of causal effects, is fundamental to data-driven decision making.

By Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang, Xiaoli Tang, Kui Yu, Han Yu, Qiang Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4

Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research

arXiv:2606. 05029v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Controlled experiments are the backbone of machine learning research, but at the scale of modern foundation models, they have become prohibitively expensive.

By Gunnar K\"onig, Martin Pawelczyk, Ulrike von Luxburg, Sebastian Bordt