arXiv Machine Learning

Dirichlet Follow-the-Leader Closes the Gap in Simultaneous Multiclass U-Calibration

arXiv:2608. 06656v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Can one forecaster attain the optimal regret rate for every bounded proper loss and also adapt to every smooth proper loss?

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 11

Bilateral Trade Under Heavy-Tailed Valuations: Minimax Regret without a Variance Bound

The paper studies contextual bilateral trade with full feedback, showing that action-independent observations eliminate the usual polynomial adaptation penalty seen in heavy-tailed bandits. It presents fully parameter-free algorithms that achieve oracle minimax regret rates without knowing the moment order or scale, and derives new regret bounds for both parametric and nonparametric settings. The key technical insight is a paired squared‑loss statistic whose noise cancels, enabling model selection and yielding regret rates that interpolate between classical nonparametric and linear extremes.

By Hangyi Zhao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration

arXiv:2606. 18527v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: U-calibration studies online forecasting algorithms whose predictions can be consumed by any unknown downstream agent, guaranteeing sublinear regret simultaneously for all proper loss functions.

By Rafael Frongillo, Haipeng Luo, Nishant A. Mehta, Jon Schneider
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 12

Optimistic Rates for Multiclass PAC Learning

arXiv:2608. 10869v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Worst-case multiclass bounds do not become smaller when the best classifier is already nearly correct: what is missing is an optimistic rate, a guarantee whose fluctuation scales with the oracle risk itself.

By Xiaoyu Li, Andi Han, Jiaojiao Jiang, Junbin Gao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 23

Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor

arXiv:2607. 19689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of recalibrating an online predictor [KE17, OKS24]: given an arbitrary "hint" sequence of forecasts, the learner must output new predictions that are calibrated while incurring small excess error relative to the original forecasts, under a proper loss.

By Lunjia Hu, Kevin Tian, Chutong Yang