arXiv Machine Learning

Alternative Strategies for Active Learning with Bayesian Bradley Terry Model

The paper introduces a Bayesian Bradley‑Terry model (BBTM) that employs Polya‑Gamma data augmentation for efficient Gibbs sampling and quantifies uncertainty in latent abilities and ranks. Three active‑learning strategies based on the knowledge‑gradient principle are proposed, using Kendall’s tau distance, posterior rank entropy, and posterior separation as acquisition functions, with approximate one‑step updates to reduce computational cost. The authors also present Posterior Separation Reliability (PSR) as an internal indicator of ranking reliability, and demonstrate through synthetic experiments that BBTM outperforms preference‑based Bayesian comparative judgement, with the entropy‑based strategy excelling at low‑to‑moderate noise and the posterior‑separation strategy at high noise levels.

arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 4

Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisons

The paper introduces a low‑rank framework for ranking large language models (LLMs) on task‑specific benchmarks using sparse pairwise comparisons. By modeling the task‑by‑model ability matrix as low rank, the method shares information across related tasks while preserving task‑specific differences, and it provides uncertainty‑aware ranking through debiased estimators and simultaneous confidence sets. Experiments on synthetic data and the Chatbot Arena benchmark demonstrate improved sample efficiency and tighter, better‑calibrated ranking certificates, especially in the sparse comparison regime typical of real LLM evaluations.

By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
arXiv AI
Jul 21

Evaluating LLMs When They Do Not Know the Answer: Statistical Evaluation of Mathematical Reasoning via Comparative Signals

arXiv:2602. 03061v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating mathematical reasoning in LLMs is constrained by limited benchmark sizes and inherent model stochasticity, yielding high-variance accuracy estimates and unstable rankings across platforms.

By Zihan Dong, Zhixian Zhang, Yang Zhou, Can Jin, Ruijia Wu, Linjun Zhang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

BaRA: Bayesian Adaptive Rank Allocation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning

arXiv:2606. 29184v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) enables highly efficient fine-tuning by constraining task-specific updates to fixed low-rank subspaces, this rigid design limits representational flexibility and often results in overconfident predictions and miscalibrated uncertainty, especially in low-data regimes.

By Zhibin Duan, Yuhong Wang, Jiahong Fu, Zongsheng Yue, Bo Chen, Zongben Xu
arXiv AI
Aug 13

CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

arXiv:2605. 04495v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) relies on evidence ranking to determine what information is exposed to the generator, yet existing retrieval and reranking methods primarily estimate query--document relevance.

By Zhipeng Song, Yizhi Zhou, Xiangyu Kong, Jiulong Jiao, Xuezhou Ye, Chunqi Gao, Xueqing Shi, Yu Wang, Yuhang Zhou, Heng Qi