arXiv:2601. 07687v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in nonlinear shrinkage yield asymptotically optimal cleaners for large covariance matrices and have been extended to empirical cross-covariances via singular-value shrinkage.
arXiv:2608.30446v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substan...
The paper examines whether benign overfitting—where highly overparameterized models still predict well—occurs in equity return prediction. It finds a double‑descent risk curve for ridgeless models and shows that while ridge regularization slightly improves performance, the advantage vanishes at high parameter‑to‑observation ratios. Ultimately, both models fail to beat a simple historical average, indicating that standard equity predictors lack genuine forecasting power even with flexible machine learning methods.
arXiv:2602. 03395v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While deep learning has revolutionized financial forecasting through sophisticated architectures, the design of the supervision signal itself is rarely scrutinized.
arXiv:2606. 09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data.
arXiv:2606. 07382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution.
arXiv:2411. 17136v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations.
arXiv:2606. 04576v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively.
arXiv:2608. 07281v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the out-of-sample prediction risk of the high-dimensional ridgeless least-squares estimator when the feature dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow proportionally.
arXiv:2609.37715v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series foundation models are increasingly adapted to new domains through fine-tuning on target data, under the implicit assumption that more targe...
arXiv:2509. 06697v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting remains a challenging problem, particularly for emerging economies, where the observed time series exhibit pronounced long-memory dependence, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity to macro-financial drivers.
arXiv:2512. 23596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Does more data improve return prediction?
The paper introduces a transfer learning framework for structured matrix estimation when both the ambient dimension and the intrinsic representation grow over time. It models the target parameter as an embedded source component plus low‑rank innovations and sparse edits, and proposes an anchored alternating projection estimator that preserves the transferred subspace while estimating only the new components. Deterministic error bounds are derived that separate target noise, representation growth, and source estimation error, showing improved rates when rank and sparsity increments are small, and the framework is applied to Markov transition matrix estimation and structured covariance estimation with theoretical guarantees and empirical validation.