arXiv:2607. 17758v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Managing massive crowds during infrequent special events requires reliable real-time pedestrian-flow forecasting to ensure public safety and operational efficiency.
arXiv:2609.16415v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pedestrian-count forecasting supports pedestrian-oriented Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), including crowd monitoring, pedestrian-traffic st...
arXiv:2609.25788v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise a paradigm shift toward zero-shot forecasting by eliminating task-specific training. However, existing wo...
arXiv:2609.13345v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting is central to decision-making under uncertainty, yet its methodological landscape has become increasingly fragmented across...
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a highly promising paradigm for cross-domain zero-shot forecasting. However, existing evaluation protocols predominantly rely on static benchmarks with fixed historical test windows.
arXiv:2607. 14871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In many operational time-series forecasting applications, such as crowd demand forecasting, the risk related to under-prediction is substantially higher than that of over-prediction.
LiveHouse-TS introduces an open‑world living benchmark for Time Series Foundation Models, evaluating them prequentially on real future data rather than static test windows. The benchmark captures continuous performance across seasonal changes, distribution shifts, and unexpected events, providing a more realistic assessment of model robustness. Experiments across 11 domains and 17 datasets show that model rankings can dramatically change under this live protocol.
arXiv:2606. 18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes.
arXiv:2607. 23146v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inspired by recent breakthroughs in large language models for natural language processing, foundation models have emerged as a promising paradigm for zero-shot time series forecasting, enabling accurate predictions on datasets never seen during pre-training.
arXiv:2606. 27438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Since its initial release in 2020, Darts has become a widely used open-source Python library for time series analysis.
Existing research on irregular time-series forecasting has primarily focused on model design, while evaluation metrics remain insufficiently studied. Existing benchmarks typically use mean squared error (MSE) as the evaluation metric.
RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
The paper critiques the prevalent use of mean squared error (MSE) for evaluating irregular time‑series forecasting, arguing that MSE is biased by timestamp sampling distributions. It introduces the Continuous‑time Squared Error (CSE), an importance‑weighted metric that theoretically offers a tighter asymptotic bound on continuous‑time risk than MSE. A comprehensive benchmark across synthetic, semi‑synthetic, and eight real‑world datasets demonstrates that CSE more accurately recovers continuous‑time risk, revealing limitations of relying solely on MSE.