arXiv AI By Rongwen Li, Haixin Xie, Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen

Beyond MSE: Rethinking the Evaluation Metric and Benchmarking for Irregular Time Series Forecasting

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The paper critiques the prevalent use of mean squared error (MSE) for evaluating irregular time‑series forecasting, arguing that MSE is biased by timestamp sampling distributions. It introduces the Continuous‑time Squared Error (CSE), an importance‑weighted metric that theoretically offers a tighter asymptotic bound on continuous‑time risk than MSE. A comprehensive benchmark across synthetic, semi‑synthetic, and eight real‑world datasets demonstrates that CSE more accurately recovers continuous‑time risk, revealing limitations of relying solely on MSE.

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arXiv AI
Aug 5

FinVerse: Financial Time-Series Benchmark

arXiv:2608. 03259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important.

By Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn