MaSCoD is a multi‑agent framework that explicitly addresses the premature omission of causal relations by first organizing candidate third variables and local structural patterns before making direct‑edge judgments. Using GPT‑5.4 and GPT‑4o as backbones, the study evaluates MaSCoD on Auto‑MPG, DWD, and Sachs datasets, finding that the Full phase—where structural hypotheses are supplied early—generally improves recall and F1 scores compared to a No Phase 1 approach, though it can also raise false‑positive rates. Ablation experiments reveal that providing both structural and contextual information does not always outperform providing only one, and that the benefits of the Full phase vary across datasets and backbones.
whyItMatters":"The paper demonstrates that explicitly pre‑organizing structural context can improve causal graph generation performance, highlighting the importance of designing omission control mechanisms in causal discovery with large language models."
The study evaluates 12 instruction‑tuned open‑weight LLMs on six causal‑graph benchmarks, testing five prompting strategies and four confidence sources. Findings show that LLMs tend to over‑predict edges, misclassify indirect or reversed edges as direct, and exhibit high over‑confidence, while conventional confidence estimates are unreliable and agreement signals offer limited improvement. The results suggest LLMs should be used as externally validated soft causal priors rather than definitive causal‑structure evidence.
By Amit Kumar, Elnur Adl Zarabi, Suranjana Trivedy, Zhiqian Chen, Lei Zhang, Kaiqun Fu, Taoran Ji
CausalArena is a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods in the era of foundation models. It unifies synthetic structural causal models (SCMs), semantically grounded SCMs, and formula‑grounded SCMs, while also including real‑world datasets for external validation. Experiments show that performance rankings vary widely across different SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not necessarily transfer to others.
By Zi-Rong Li, Si-Yang Liu, Tian-Zuo Wang, Han-Jia Ye
arXiv:2606. 24370v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into decision-support roles in business and policy contexts.
By Hiroshi Okumura
arXiv:2608. 02877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery recovers directed structure from observational data and is increasingly used in clinical settings to support mechanism reasoning and fairness audits of predictive models.
By Nitish Nagesh, Elahe Khatibi, Thomas Dean Hughes, Mahdi Bagheri, Pratik Gajane, Amir M. Rahmani
CausalArena is a unified, evolvable benchmark designed to evaluate causal discovery methods across diverse structural causal models (SCMs). It incorporates synthetic SCMs for controlled structural variation, semantic operational SCMs for human-auditable environments, and formula-grounded SCMs to test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms, along with real-world datasets for external validity. Experiments show that performance rankings vary significantly across SCM families and protocols, indicating that strong results on one benchmark do not generalize to others, especially in the context of causal discovery foundation models.
arXiv:2609.37446v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Supervised causal discovery learns to infer causal structure for a new dataset from training datasets paired with structural labels. These training pai...
By Pingchuan Ma, Rui Ding, Bojun Huang, Shuai Wang
arXiv:2603. 16475v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In schema-guided reasoning (SGR) pipelines, LLMs produce explicit intermediate structures -- rubrics, checklists, or verification queries -- before committing to a final decision.
By Oleg Somov, Mikhail Chaichuk, Gleb Ershov, Karim Vafin, Mikhail Seleznyov, Alexander Panchenko, Elena Tutubalina
arXiv:2404.06349v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual r...
By Yu Zhou, Xingyu Wu, Jibin Wu, Liang Feng, Kay Chen Tan
CIDER-FM is a causal foundation model that combines finite observational data with surrogate-interventional datasets to predict target conditional interventional distributions more accurately than using observational data alone. It employs an intervention-aware representation and hierarchical three‑axis attention to integrate information across variables, samples, and experimental regimes. Experiments on synthetic graphs, simulated data, and real‑world Causal Chambers data show that incorporating experimental context improves CID prediction performance.
By Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo, Anish Dhir, Bernhard Sch\"olkopf, Adrian Weller
arXiv:2608. 03868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges.
By Abhinav Thorat, Ravi Kumar Kolla, Vishak K Bhat, Harsh Vardhan Singh Chauhan, Niranjan Pedanekar
arXiv:2609.22090v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: An LLM producing the response pattern associated with a human psychological effect is not the same claim as the LLM possessing that bias. We present Ps...
By Joy Bose