arXiv Machine Learning

Measurement Under Selection: Decoy-Calibrated Failure Audits for Language Models

The paper introduces Janus, a method for validating error patterns in language models by comparing error rates across predefined yes/no properties and using shuffled decoy labels to set significance thresholds. Janus requires that a pattern’s error difference surpasses the decoy-derived threshold and is replicated on held‑out data before reporting. Experiments on a controlled code‑finding task confirm several meaningful error patterns, while on MuSiQue and LongBench v2 Janus reports no confirmed patterns for the tested properties, contrasting with standard shuffling tests that sometimes confirm patterns.

arXiv AI
Aug 26

Feedback That Backfires: Why Small Language Model Agents Repeat the Call They Just Watched Fail

The study investigates why small language model agents tend to repeat a tool call that just failed. By recording the failed call and its error message in the transcript, the authors measure a negative corrective gain—agents are more likely to repeat the failed action, with a drop of about 1.03 nats per token. The problem is traced to the harness design rather than the model’s understanding of errors, and the authors show that replacing the verbatim call with a runtime-generated description of the failure can reduce this backfiring effect by 76%.

By Esmail Gumaan
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 17

A Calibrated Instrument for Measuring How Inference Optimizations Affect Output Quality

The paper introduces a calibrated instrument for rigorously measuring how inference optimizations—such as quantization, early‑exit, and speculative decoding—affect the output quality of large language models. It uses a formally calibrated LLM judge that verifies no systematic bias between statistically equivalent outputs and includes a null condition to ensure measured differences are zero. Applying this method, the authors find that a 4‑bit model is indistinguishable from its 16‑bit counterpart, while 3‑bit quantization and early‑exit techniques incur measurable quality losses that vary by language and task, and that token‑certainty‑based acceptance rules cannot reliably identify impactful errors.

By Jerry Kaplan
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Low-Cost Assays for Measuring Model Behavior Across Vendors and Releases

The paper introduces inexpensive, scalable methods for evaluating language model behavior across different vendors and releases. By running identical public stimuli on a cross‑vendor panel and analyzing transcripts via exact match, LLM‑coded codebooks, or instrumented environments, the authors can quantify model responses at a cost of a few dollars per model. Applying these tools to four years of releases reveals patterns of convergence, resistance, positional stability, and compliance that vary by generation, lab, and harness.

By Tapan Parikh
arXiv AI
1d ago

Hard-Gate Candidacy in a Deployed Validator Suite

The paper evaluates hard‑gate candidacy for validators in a deployed generative‑agent system by measuring how well each validator’s firing separates successful from failed builds. Across 13 validators and thousands of builds, only a few checks show statistically significant separation, while many fail to distinguish or never fire. The study highlights that skipped checks are recorded as passes, limiting detectable failure rates and underscoring the need for clearer evaluation records.

By Xin Xu
arXiv AI
Aug 20

Metrics That Write Themselves: Evolving an Evaluator from Its Own Blind Spots

The paper introduces EvalCEGAR, a method that automatically evolves a metric for evaluating AI-generated answers by iteratively refining a pool of small Python operators that flag potential defects. By using counterexample-guided abstraction refinement, the system identifies pairs of answers that score identically but differ in correctness, prompting the metric to broaden its scope rather than resample. On benchmark datasets, the evolved 55‑line operator closes a significant portion of the performance gap compared to hand‑written metrics and outperforms a large‑language‑model judge that incurs a cost per candidate.

By Xing Zhang, Yanwei Cui, Guanghui Wang, Zhihao Lin, Peiyang He