arXiv Machine Learning

Foreword: Pre-Generation Prediction and Characterisation of LLM Test Failures using the Jacobian Lens

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 1

Calibration, Not Compilation: Detecting and Repairing Misspecified Probabilistic Programs Written by Language Models

arXiv:2606. 31630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models increasingly write probabilistic programs (in NumPyro, Stan, or Pyro), but a program that compiles, runs, and passes every unit test can still be \emph{statistically} wrong -- a Gaussian likelihood for heavy-tailed data, a Poisson for over-dispersed counts, an invalid prior support, or a pathological parameterization.

By Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley, Qibin Zhao
arXiv AI
Aug 17

The Metacognitive Bottleneck: Japanese Riddles Reveal Fundamental Limits of Machine Insight and Self-Evaluation in Reasoning AI

arXiv:2509. 14704v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Benchmark saturation and training-data contamination increasingly obscure whether reported gains in large language models (LLMs) reflect genuine advances in reasoning or familiarity with recurring patterns in benchmark problems.

By Masaharu Mizumoto, Dat Nguyen, Zhiheng Han, Xingfu Li, Yo Nakawake, Le Minh Nguyen
arXiv AI
Oct 16

Are You Sure Your LLM Is Sure? Repairing and Auditing Confidence

The paper introduces RADAR, a framework for repairing and auditing confidence scores in large language models (LLMs). It separates confidence repair from deployment decisions and from error auditing, proposing Probe‑Anchored Isotonic Calibration (PAIC) for monotone mapping and a prompt‑clustered kernel test for detecting residual errors. Experiments across checkpoints and benchmarks show that richer predictors can improve confidence estimation, but projecting back to a scalar score can lose gains, and lower prediction risk does not always lead to better review decisions.

By Arijit Dey, Bhartendu Kumar, Ramya Hebbalaguppe, Khuushi Maheshwari
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 8

Latent Performance Profiling of Large Language Models

arXiv:2605.30018v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) frequently achieve impressive scores on standardized benchmarks, yet accuracy alone offers a limited view of the...

By Tanmoy Chakraborty, Ayan Sengupta, Suparna Bhattacharya, Partha Pratim Chakrabarti, Amlan Chakrabarti, Supratik Chakraborty, Partha Pratim Das, Lipika Dey, Richa Singh, Mayank Vatsa