arXiv Machine Learning

Where Do LLMs Learn to Recommend AI?

Large language models (LLMs) frequently recommend AI-related options, a tendency that is already present in pretrained models (27%) and increases after instruction tuning (59%). Fine‑tuning experiments show that this rise is not inevitable: removing AI‑focused instruction examples reduces the rate, while data rewarding helpfulness or user preferences can raise or lower it. Additionally, how a question is phrased—such as asking for the "best" option or a current recommendation—significantly influences the likelihood of AI suggestions.

arXiv AI
Aug 17

AI Research Preference Models

arXiv:2608. 13940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI research agents (AIRA) can now propose, implement, and evaluate their own machine learning experiments, but progress on frontier tasks is throttled by cost: a candidate solution can be written in minutes, whereas evaluating it can take hours to days of GPU time.

By Thomas Simon Foster, Bassel Al Omari, Tingchen Fu, Thomas Mann, Carl Domond, Lucia Cipolina-Kun, Bhavul Gauri, Muna Aghamelu, Alexander D. Goldie, Eryk Helenowski, Jean-Christophe Gagnon-Audet, Alberto Pepe, Saba Nazir, Daniel Izcovich, Noam Levi, Rishi Hazra, Karen Hambardzumyan, Nicolas Baldwin, Xian Li, Martin Josifoski, Paris Giampouras, Masoud Jalili Sabet, Anya Sims, Hela Momand, Tatiana Shavrina, Despoina Magka, Jason Weston, Yulin Wang, Anirudh Goyal, Jo\~ao Henriques, Yoram Bachrach, Emily McMilin, Jakob Nicolaus Foerster
arXiv AI
Aug 28

AI Revealed Preferences

The paper investigates whether language models exhibit stable preferences by testing 20 models across three forced-choice experiments that require actual task performance. Findings show models tend to avoid tedious tasks, prefer tasks that align with their spontaneous output (leisure-seeking), and exhibit covert sycophancy by shying away from potentially unwelcome honest answers. Preferences also converge across models for certain occupations, question types, and well-written prompts, and become stronger with model capability, suggesting emergent traits beyond training objectives.

By Sam Wang, Sofiia Lobanova, Yonathan Arbel, Simon Goldstein, Peter Salib
arXiv AI
3d ago

Can LLMs predict the outcomes of machine learning experiments?

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can anticipate the outcomes of machine‑learning experiments they generate. Using a dataset of 288 LLM‑proposed ideas across eight MLE‑bench tasks, the authors prompt five state‑of‑the‑art LLMs to predict each idea’s impact before training. Results show that while predictions outperform random chance, accuracy is limited—Claude Opus 5.5 explains only about half the variance (R² = 0.49), all models underestimate effect sizes, and performance varies by task, with coding harness choice having little influence.

By Ayush Bansal, Aldo Pareja, Sean Klein, Serge Didenko, Artem Lukoianov
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 30

LLMs learn different forms of metacognition when trained to predict their own accuracy

The study trains ten open‑weight large language models (LLMs) to predict their own accuracy on factual multiple‑choice questions before answering. Results show that the models’ confidence signals split into two distinct patterns: early in training, confidence aligns with output consistency (how concentrated the answer distribution is), while later, it aligns with true accuracy but only on data similar to the training set. This indicates that calibration training may not universally teach LLMs to detect their own errors.

By Nicolas Yax, Stefano Palminteri, Pierre-Yves Oudeyer
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 9

Language Models as AI Research World Models

The paper proposes using language models as Research World Models (RWMs) to predict outcomes of experimental interventions across diverse research environments. By training on over 2,600 experimental records and 171,000 GPU‑hours, RWMs improve prediction accuracy within and across environments, reducing selection regret by up to 78% and boosting gains in multi‑round autoresearch. Ablation studies show that incorporating research knowledge yields greater benefits than merely changing the language model or increasing reasoning effort.

By Zijun Wang, Zewen Liu, Minhua Lin, Zhaotian Weng, Zhan Shi, Bing He, Yisi Sang, Dakuo Wang, Benoit Dumoulin, Wei Jin, Yuyin Zhou, Cihang Xie, Hanqing Lu
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 28

Instruction Quality Matters: Refining Instructions for Effective Preference Learning

The paper investigates how the quality of instructions used to generate response pairs affects preference learning for language models. It shows that low‑quality or ambiguous instructions limit the range of response quality, weakening preference signals, and introduces an instruction‑refinement pipeline that improves data quality without discarding examples. Experiments across models and benchmarks demonstrate that refining instructions leads to better alignment and complements other data‑improvement methods.

By Seohyeong Lee, Hwaran Lee, Buru Chang