CEDAR is a two‑stage framework for demand forecasting that incorporates planned actions and external event signals. Stage I uses an Action‑Interleaved Transformer to model controllable state transitions under interventions, while Stage II applies a Residual Correction Module that aligns event descriptions with product context using LLM‑assisted text representations. Experiments on a large Alibaba 1688 dataset show that CEDAR improves simulation accuracy over traditional time‑series forecasting baselines and benefits real‑world budget planning.
Deep Limit Order Book forecasting models capture nonlinear market dynamics, but their ability to quantify the effects of counterfactual order book messages has not been systematically validated. We in...
The paper demonstrates that deep limit order book forecasting models can be repurposed to quantify scenario-conditioned market impact without retraining. By injecting counterfactual order‑book messages into a trained Transformer forecaster, the authors compare predictive distributions before and after the injection, defining a short‑horizon model‑implied market impact. The approach achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.99 and 97.2% directional agreement with historical outcomes for non‑neutral scenarios, and captures incremental sequence‑dependent variation beyond scenario identity and pre‑event forecasts.
arXiv:2606. 10678v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies.
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
arXiv:2607. 18530v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Supplier lead time forecasting is a central input to material requirements planning, inventory optimization, and supply chain risk management.
arXiv:2505. 16319v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate demand estimation is critical for the retail business in guiding the inventory and pricing policies of perishable products.
arXiv:2505. 16319v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate demand estimation is critical for the retail business in guiding the inventory and pricing policies of perishable products.
arXiv:2503. 24007v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In time series forecasting, covariates represent external factors that influence target variables.
arXiv:2609.21382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Operators of service-based systems act on forecasts of how a running execution will continue, and such a forecast is actionable only if its reliability...
arXiv:2608. 09335v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multistage stochastic model predictive control (MPC) handles uncertainty by optimizing over a scenario tree, a finite branching approximation of future outcomes constructed from sampled forecasts.
arXiv:2606. 18049v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights.
arXiv:2607. 28035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Irregular multivariate time series are widely encountered in applications such as healthcare monitoring, human activity recognition, and environmental sensing.