arXiv:2608. 11210v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian calibration of process-based models requires a prior distribution for each model parameter.
arXiv:2601.17609v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In domains like medicine and finance, large-scale labeled data is costly and often unavailable, leading to models trained on small datasets that st...
arXiv:2608. 09696v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting the answer to interventional ``what if'' questions --- the outcome of an action never taken --- requires a \emph{mechanistic}, causal model, not a curve fit; and learning such a model requires \emph{experiments}, because passive data leaves its mechanisms unidentified.
Predicting the answer to interventional ``what if'' questions --- the outcome of an action never taken --- requires a \emph{mechanistic}, causal model, not a curve fit; and learning such a model requires \emph{experiments}, because passive data leaves its mechanisms unidentified. Experiments are expensive, so the central problem is \emph{data efficiency}.
arXiv:2608. 11415v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models are being proposed as agents in scientific workflows, in domains where no downstream verifier exists.
The paper investigates how large language models can extract contextualized data from scientific literature. It presents four workflows: expert‑written prompts, self‑generated prompts, autonomous literature discovery, and dataset creation from guidelines. While models perform well with prompts, they struggle with context, hallucinate references, and still need human oversight for final validation.
arXiv:2607. 27023v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive.
The paper introduces ENFR, a method for estimating the absolute evidence ζ of a data‑generating model in Bayesian inference. It learns Bayes factors relative to a flow‑matched reference and then recovers the absolute evidence, improving over existing flow‑based baselines across multiple applications. The authors also provide a joint architecture for estimating evidences of multiple models and demonstrate its performance and scalability on diverse scientific datasets.
arXiv:2606. 08532v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A scientific hypothesis is the first step in research and undergoes experimental validation, yet it also reflects a deep understanding of and reasoning about scientific phenomena.
arXiv:2606. 10794v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Existing black-box LLM provenance methods achieve comparability by querying every candidate model with the same diagnostic prompts.
arXiv:2602. 18266v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Automated methods for discovering mechanistic simulator models from observational data offer a promising path toward accelerating scientific progress.
The paper investigates how Large Language Models can be used to approximate domain expert priors for Bayesian Networks by extracting probabilistic knowledge about real‑world events. Experiments on eighty publicly available networks across domains such as healthcare and finance show that LLM‑derived conditional probabilities outperform random, uniform, and next‑token baselines. The authors also demonstrate that these LLM‑generated priors can refine data‑driven distributions, especially when data is scarce, and provide the first comprehensive baseline for evaluating LLM performance in probabilistic knowledge extraction.
arXiv:2609.07611v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Scientific ideation is the capacity to formulate novel and testable hypotheses from scientific evidence, and autonomous AI scientists depend on it. Exi...