arXiv:2607. 28220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states.
By Cas Decancq, Thomas Mortier, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles
Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states. Yet in a warming world, improving early warnings of extreme heat is an increasingly critical challenge.
arXiv:2504. 20238v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill.
By P. Trent Vonich, Gregory J. Hakim
The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP). While these data-driven architectures demonstrate remarkable global skill, regional benchmarks in the Global South remain scarce, leaving their efficacy in complex, highly convective environments largely unverified.
arXiv:2606. 06348v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP).
By Wolfgang R. Rowell Jr., Lucas S. Kupssinsk\"u
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
By David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill, Chris D. Thorncroft
arXiv:2608. 09286v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global medium-range weather forecasting requires modeling structured yet state-dependent interactions among heterogeneous atmospheric fields.
By Zhisheng Chen, Jinhan Li, Yuxuan Li, Yuan Gao, Hao Wu, Zheng Lu, Jinlong Du, Kun Wang, Bo An
arXiv:2606. 28546v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent advances in AI-driven weather and climate modeling have improved forecast skill while reducing computational cost.
By Anisha Pal, Aodhan Sweeney, Kyle Heyblom, Kalai Ramea
arXiv:2607. 05658v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), best known for positioning, also serve weather science, as atmospheric water vapour delays their signals.
By Leonardo Trentini, Fanny Lehmann, Laura Crocetti, Benedikt Soja
arXiv:2510. 02415v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed.
By Bosong Zhang, Timothy M. Merlis
arXiv:2607. 03298v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change.
By Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo, Massimo Tavoni
arXiv:2606. 08563v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables.
By Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang