arXiv Machine Learning

Generalization bounds and sample complexity for remaining useful life prediction from complete degradation trajectories

arXiv:2607. 23454v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction requires complete degradation trajectories for training, yet such run-to-failure data are scarce and expensive.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Statistical Gains from Looped Estimation under Parameter Budgets

The paper investigates whether a looped estimator—one that repeatedly applies a single fitted operator with shared parameters—can enhance statistical accuracy while staying within a fixed parameter budget. It establishes upper and lower bounds on squared Hellinger risk for looped sieve maximum likelihood and compares them to the untied counterpart, revealing a tradeoff between parameter sharing, iteration count, and accuracy. For models with known H"older smoothness, looped residual feedforward networks and a post‑layer‑normalized Transformer achieve minimax polynomial rates with a fixed number of bounded real parameters, and under certain conditions the looped estimator’s worst‑case risk vanishes as sample size grows, outperforming the untied approach.

By Xinyu Tian, Xiaotong Shen
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Distribution-free Deviation Bounds and The Role of Domain Knowledge in Learning via Model Selection with Cross-validation Risk Estimation

arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.

By Diego Marcondes, Cl\'audia Peixoto
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

Convergence Bound and Critical Batch Size of Muon Optimizer

arXiv:2507. 01598v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Muon, a recently proposed optimizer that leverages the inherent matrix structure of neural network parameters, has demonstrated strong empirical performance, indicating its potential as a successor to standard optimizers such as AdamW.

By Naoki Sato, Hiroki Naganuma, Hideaki Iiduka
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 21

Exact Algebraic Computation of Learning Coefficients for Two-Dimensional Singular Models

arXiv:2608. 20183v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Classical information criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) rely on regularity assumptions that break down for singular models, leading to incorrect model selection in settings such as deep learning.

By Gr\'egoire Sergeant-Perthuis (CQSB, Sorbonne Universit\'e), Elias Tsigaridas (Ouragan Team, INRIA), Jules Tsukahara (Ouragan Team, INRIA)