arXiv:2608. 11435v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forward and inverse modeling of parametric dynamical systems requires surrogate models that are not only accurate for state prediction, but also informative for parameter calibration.
arXiv:2603.20111v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) is often seen as a non-generative alternative to likelihood-based self-supervised learning, emph...
arXiv:2607. 16725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional generative modeling remains a challenging problem in semi-supervised settings where labeled data is scarce but unlabeled samples are abundant.
arXiv:2603. 19312v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a compelling framework for learning world models in compact latent spaces, yet existing methods remain fragile, relying on complex multi-term losses, exponential moving averages, pre-trained encoders, or auxiliary supervision to avoid representation collapse.
The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.
arXiv:2609.23789v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SD...
Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and the simulator is misspecified relative to observed...
Neural Composite Likelihood Estimation (NCLE) extends simulation‑based inference to high‑dimensional time series by partitioning long sequences into equal‑sized batches. For each batch, a neural network estimates the likelihood via conditional density estimation, and the product of these batch likelihoods forms an approximate composite likelihood. Frequentist inference is then performed by maximizing this composite likelihood to obtain a point estimate and by estimating the Godambe information matrix to derive confidence intervals.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
arXiv:2609.36950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and t...
arXiv:2608.29335v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Latent generative models typically follow a two-stage pipeline, training a variational autoencoder for reconstruction and then a generative model on th...
arXiv:2606. 01468v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Due to their explicit priors and ability to model uncertainty, Bayesian methods have played a major role in dynamical latent variable modeling of single-cell neural recordings.