arXiv AI

Calibrated Sampling-Free Uncertainty Estimation in Bayesian Deep Learning

arXiv:2606. 16214v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern deep learning models remain notoriously prone to overconfidence, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications.

arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 21

Uncertainty-driven training for three-dimensional calibrated lung nodule classification

The paper introduces an uncertainty‑driven training framework for 3D CT lung nodule classification that uses validation‑based uncertainty estimates to reweight the loss, aiming to improve predictive performance and probability calibration. Two uncertainty quantification methods—Monte Carlo Dropout and Evidential Deep Learning—are evaluated across multiple backbone architectures (ResNet, DenseNet, EfficientNet, ViT, Swin) on the LIDC‑IDRI and NoduleMNIST3D datasets. The approach yields comparable classification accuracy to conventional training while substantially reducing expected calibration error, especially on convolutional backbones, and shows that simple temperature scaling can also achieve strong calibration.

By Giuseppe Tripodi, Alessandro De Rosis, Saleh Rezaeiravesh
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

CORE-STACK+: Meta-Learning for Deep Stacked Generalization

CORE-STACK+ is a new meta‑learning framework for deep stacked generalization that tackles two key problems in heterogeneous vision ensembles: prediction‑space multicollinearity and calibration collapse. It introduces a four‑step preconditioning pipeline—kernelized redundancy filtering, a lightweight differentiable meta‑feature gate, a spectrum‑adaptive ridge penalty, and a Laplace‑approximate Bayesian blender—to jointly improve conditioning and calibration. Across six vision benchmarks, CORE‑STACK+ boosts accuracy, reduces model count and inference cost, and significantly lowers expected calibration error compared to existing methods.

By Noor Islam S. Mohammad
arXiv AI
Jun 16

Bayesian 3D Steerable CNNs: Enabling Equivariance and Uncertainty Quantification Simultaneously

arXiv:2606. 15479v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Steerable convolutional neural networks (Steerable-CNNs) guarantee SE(3)-equivariance by parameterizing kernels as linear combinations of steerable basis functions, but their deterministic nature precludes uncertainty quantification - limiting their use in settings where confidence estimates are essential.

By Abhishek Keripale, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan, Susanta Ghosh
arXiv AI
Jul 7

Last Layer Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

arXiv:2507. 08905v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We explore the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling as a probabilistic last layer approach for deep neural networks (DNNs).

By Koen Vellenga, H. Joe Steinhauer, G\"oran Falkman, Jonas Andersson, Anders Sj\"ogren
arXiv AI
Jul 29

Rethinking Likelihood distributions: Student's t Likelihood Boosts Bayesian Neural Network Performance

arXiv:2607. 25376v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), variational inference is a widely adopted framework for modeling uncertainty in a distributional way, with the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serving as the standard objective function.

By Pei-Hsuan Hsia, Lars H. Heyen, Arvid Weyrauch, Markus Goetz, Achim Streit, Sebastian Krumscheid, Charlotte Debus