arXiv Machine Learning

Missingness as Signal: Channel-Independent Spectrogram Learning for Clinical Time Series Prediction

arXiv:2607. 02938v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical time series prediction in intensive care units remains challenging due to heterogeneous physiological variables and informative missingness.

arXiv AI
Aug 24

Curriculum-Aware Interpolate-then-Refine: Learned Physiological Time-Series Imputation under Realistic Missingness

The paper introduces Curriculum‑Aware Interpolate‑then‑Refine (CAIR), a two‑stage framework for imputing physiological time‑series data. CAIR first learns a coarse base curve with a bidirectional‑GRU interpolator and then refines it through three Transformer passes, trained under a random‑gap curriculum that mimics realistic missingness. Evaluations on continuous glucose monitoring and arterial pressure datasets show CAIR outperforms all baselines across MCAR, MAR, and NMAR mechanisms, especially for long gaps and value‑dependent dropout, while also preserving clinically relevant burden metrics.

By Yu-Chao Huang, Haochen Zhang, Nicholas Konz, Tianlong Chen
arXiv AI
Sep 10

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN: Prior-Guided Joint Probabilistic Forecasting of Clinical Trajectories

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy. whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."

By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

NeoTriFuse: Reliability-Aware Multimodal Fusion under Missingness Heterogeneity for Neonatal Mortality Risk Prediction

NeoTriFuse is a reliability‑aware multimodal fusion framework designed to predict neonatal mortality risk from bedside monitoring data that suffers from extreme class imbalance, heterogeneous risk factors, multi‑scale temporal dynamics, and significant missingness. The method treats missing data as an explicit reliability signal, dynamically adjusting modality contributions during fusion through gating mechanisms that incorporate static perinatal variables, local‑global temporal encoders, and patient‑level statistical summaries. NeoTriFuse achieves competitive performance (F1 ≈ 0.674, AUROC ≈ 0.945) and ablation studies show that its temporal architecture and patient‑level summary branch are key contributors, with reliability‑aware gating further improving threshold‑dependent metrics under heterogeneous observation completeness.

By Jiyuan Tian, Qincheng Shen, Ye Lin, Yu Gao, Haohui Lu