arXiv:2606. 29623v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Rare events govern the safety profile of modern AI systems, yet their probabilities are extremely difficult to estimate: direct Monte Carlo requires prohibitive sample budgets.
arXiv:2607. 18454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the risk of rare failures in language models, such as those triggered by adversarial distribution shifts or very large-scale deployments, requires estimating probabilities far too small for random sampling.
arXiv:2604. 22167v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale.
Chopthin-Consensus Power Sampling (CCPS) is a new inference-time decoding method for large language models that uses the Chopthin resampler to preserve diversity among particle trajectories. By enforcing an upper bound on weight ratios instead of equal-weight resampling, CCPS maintains a richer set of distinct reasoning paths and guarantees a lower bound on effective sample size. Coupled with a semantic-majority selection mechanism, CCPS achieves higher oracle coverage and matches or surpasses baseline accuracy on multiple reasoning benchmarks.
arXiv:2606. 30372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias.
arXiv:2605. 06605v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Evaluating and predicting the performance of large language models (LLMs) in multi-turn conversational settings is critical yet computationally expensive; key events -- e.
arXiv:2608. 14420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Power Sampling sharpens a language model's distribution over complete generation trajectories, offering a verifier-free way to improve reasoning at inference time.
arXiv:2602. 04879v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs), with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) serving as the de facto standard algorithm.
The paper introduces FAMIS, a flow-based multiple importance sampling framework that learns a nonuniform mixture of normalizing flow proposals for rare‑event estimation. It does not need presampled failure data or prior knowledge of failure modes, instead adapting the mixture through sequential evaluations of the limit state function. The method employs a smooth rare‑event surrogate, a tempered target sequence, defensive exploration, Rao‑Blackwellized weight updates, and a Jensen‑Shannon repulsion term to promote diversity, achieving accurate failure probability estimates with fewer training samples and stable variance reduction in complex reliability problems.
arXiv:2607. 04728v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for large language models (LLMs) follows a efficient paradigm of "rollout then update", which inevitably results in off-policy training data.
arXiv:2505.19893v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language model pretraining is compute-intensive, yet many tokens contribute marginally to learning, resulting in inefficiency. We introduce E...
arXiv:2608. 10621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent research on Large Language Model (LLM) safety has widely adopted guardrails to identify unsafe LLM outputs.