Who Drives the Probability Game of VLMs? A Temporal Causal Drive Evaluation Framework
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The paper introduces a causal and temporal evaluation framework for vision‑language models (VLMs) that tracks how visual input, question text, and generated prefixes influence autoregressive decoding. It defines three step‑indexed causal‑drive metrics—Visual Causal Drive (VCD), Question Causal Drive (QCD), and Prefix Causal Drive (PCD)—using a Structural Causal Model and interventions. Experiments on Qwen3‑VL‑8B‑Instruct and other datasets show a shift from early question and visual guidance to increased reliance on generated prefixes, and demonstrate that QCD and PCD reduce recovery error and improve bias detection.
The study examines how Vision‑Language Models (VLMs) integrate visual evidence into language‑based decisions by applying layer‑wise causal interventions on video‑text attention pathways in a video‑based generative multiple‑choice setting. Findings reveal that visual information is primarily incorporated while processing candidate answer options, with nouns serving as key semantic anchors and verbs becoming important during temporal reasoning. The research also uncovers a distinct pattern in temporal reasoning, indicating that VLMs struggle to reconstruct sequential information across video frames, possibly due to linguistic biases in temporal expressions.
arXiv:2609.22588v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision-language models (VLMs) perform strongly on visual question answering benchmarks, yet often make decisions that contradict visual evidence they h...
The paper introduces REVEAL, a diagnostic benchmark that stresses Video‑Language Models (VidLMs) on five controlled probes—camera‑motion sensitivity, cross‑frame integration, video sycophancy, language‑only shortcuts, and temporal expectation bias—to assess how well these models encode and use visual evidence. Experiments on 12 VidLMs reveal systematic failures: some visual signals are never reliably encoded, while others are overridden by model priors, leading to performance below chance on several probes that humans solve with high accuracy. Mechanistic probes further pinpoint where and why visual evidence is lost, demonstrating that under assertive prompts a model’s output becomes nearly invariant to real versus random video input, rendering visual evidence causally inert.
The paper investigates how visual interventions—training‑free edits applied to multimodal large language models—affect hallucinations and prediction quality. By applying a visual‑residual edit across successive decoder layers and matching its RMS strength, the authors identify an Evidence Anchoring Boundary (EAB) where the intervention’s influence drops sharply; effects before the EAB are 13.78–26.10× larger than after it. They further compare counterfactual subtraction across different question types and introduce calibrated selective routing, which only alters predictions when calibration supports an intervention, improving attribute accuracy by 1.56–1.81 percentage points while avoiding the harms of universal subtraction.
arXiv:2609.13228v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision Language Models (VLMs) should rely on visual evidence that directly determines the correct answer, but supervision for grounding visual reasonin...