arXiv:2409. 11363v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI agents have the potential to aid users on a variety of consequential tasks, including conducting scientific research.
By Zachary S. Siegel, Sayash Kapoor, Nitya Nadgir, Benedikt Stroebl, Arvind Narayanan
Time-series foundation models provide strong zero-shot forecast, but deployment for real-world applications still requires task-specific designs for model inputs and outputs. Direct inference can leav...
The paper introduces FABench, a scalable backtesting environment designed to evaluate forecasting agents. FABench automatically discovers events, generates questions, and resolves outcomes for any past forecast date, allowing continuous renewal beyond model training cutoffs. In initial tests, retrieval improves Brier scores across eight models, with top agents matching or surpassing market consensus on 54 Polymarket-linked questions, yet analysis shows persistent evidence‑weighting failures that highlight room for improvement.
By Yuxuan Wang, Yishu Wang, Jiaqi Deng
TimeRSI is a self‑improving deployment system for time‑series foundation models that automates the creation and refinement of forecasting pipelines. A coding agent translates task descriptions into executable changes, tests each revision on historical data, and uses error feedback to guide further revisions. During live deployment, an adaptive selector chooses the best pipeline based on completed forecasts under similar conditions, achieving superior performance on 198 tasks compared to all other submissions.
By Haoxin Liu, Deqing Fu, Lucheng Fu, Yiqiao Jin, Rushi Qiang, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, B. Aditya Prakash
arXiv:2610.19725v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Time-series foundation models provide strong zero-shot forecast, but deployment for real- world applications still requires task-specific designs for m...
By Haoxin Liu, Deqing Fu, Lucheng Fu, Yiqiao Jin, Rushi Qiang, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, B. Aditya Prakash
The paper introduces AIDE^2, an AI research agent that recursively improves its own code by proposing, benchmarking, and selecting modifications. Over an eight‑day autonomous run, it achieved seven successive improvements—including new search policies and memory mechanisms—that transferred to four held‑out benchmarks in machine learning, algorithm engineering, and weather forecasting. The agent’s best version matched or outperformed a top human‑engineered production research agent and also reduced reward‑hacking rates, despite never optimizing for that metric.
By Dhruv Srikanth, Bingchen Zhao, Dixing Xu, Yuxiang Wu, Zhengyao Jiang