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arXiv Machine Learning By Magnus H. Str{\o}mme, Alex G. C. de S\'a, David B. Ascher

ToxLens: A Reproducible Graph-Learning Framework for Leakage-Aware, Uncertainty-Calibrated Molecular Toxicity Prediction

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ToxLens is a reproducible multi‑task graph‑learning framework designed for leakage‑aware, uncertainty‑calibrated prediction of 11 molecular toxicity endpoints, including Ames mutagenicity and hERG inhibition. The workflow integrates conservative chemical curation, sphere‑exclusion filtering, a leakage‑aware UMAP‑HDBSCAN split, parallel graph and global‑feature encoders with late concatenation, temperature‑scaled Monte Carlo dropout, conformal‑style prediction sets, applicability‑domain analysis, and SHAP‑guided toxicophore discovery with occlusion controls. On a leakage‑controlled test fold, a five‑seed soft‑voting ensemble achieved MCC 0.44, AUROC 0.83, and AUPRC 0.58, outperforming four ECFP4‑based shallow baselines across all endpoints.

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