arXiv Machine Learning By Hua-Dong Xiong, Xinyuan Yan, Ji-An Li, Jingming Xue, Marcelo G. Mattar, Robert C. Wilson

Thinking Under Uncertainty: Evidence Use and Information-Seeking in Language Models

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2607. 26845v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inference-time thinking improves the performance of large language models, but aggregate outcomes do not reveal whether models use available evidence more effectively or seek information that could improve future decisions.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 29

Thinking Under Uncertainty: Evidence Use and Information-Seeking in Language Models

Inference-time thinking improves the performance of large language models, but aggregate outcomes do not reveal whether models use available evidence more effectively or seek information that could improve future decisions. We distinguish these responses by measuring action preference, thinking length, and reported confidence under matched uncertainty.

arXiv AI
Sep 21

How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence

arXiv:2603.17839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from...

By Dharshan Kumaran, Arthur Conmy, Federico Barbero, Simon Osindero, Viorica Patraucean, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c
arXiv Computation and Language
4d ago

Better Behavioral Prediction, More Faithful Model Ablations? Evidence from Sequential Choice

The paper investigates whether input ablations on predictive models can reliably reveal the importance of information for explaining human sequential choice behavior. Using two synthetic bandit tasks with known generating policies, the authors compare GRUs, Transformers, a fine‑tuned LLaMA, and cognitive models under varied reward contributions. They find that while neural models can predict choices well, their responses to ablations often diverge from the true generating process, indicating that predictive accuracy alone does not guarantee faithful model ablations.

By Hanbo Xie