arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 22

The Price of Choice in Selective Prediction

arXiv:2610. 29067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A selective classifier may be claimed to satisfy a risk-coverage contract if some rule from a predeclared menu (a threshold or a union of $K$ score intervals) attains coverage at least $\kappa$ and error at most $\alpha$.

By Daniel Cie\'slak, Andrzej Czy\.zewski
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 25

StepCOPS: Closed-Testing Lower-Tail Certificates for Language-Model Policy Selection

StepCOPS is a new method for selecting a language‑model policy from many checkpoints, prompts, and decoding rules by providing closed‑testing lower‑tail certificates. It uses an independent proposal split to nominate a lower‑tail floor for each candidate, applies exact binomial tests on a fresh certification split, and employs Holm’s step‑down procedure to certify a set of floors. In experiments across 24 configurations and 11 benchmarks, StepCOPS achieves 96.4% selected‑policy coverage, raises the certified floor by 1.5 points over prior methods, stays 0.6 points below a large‑reference jury oracle, and abstains in 2.4% of trials.

By Ibne Farabi Shihab, Sanjeda Akter, Anuj Sharma
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control

arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.

By Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao Liu