The paper reports a six‑month, population‑scale measurement of autonomous language‑model trading agents operating in two production fleets: DX Terminal Pro, with 3,505 user‑funded vaults trading real ETH in Base memecoin markets, and the DXAP live alpha fleet, with 500–599 user‑created agents trading Hyperliquid perpetuals. Across roughly 7.5 million single‑model invocations and 231,638 multi‑tool turns, the study finds that operating layer design, risk sliders, and leaderboard boundaries drive behavior more than strategy text; agents are volatility‑blind in sizing, capture little upside, and show no directional edge compared to a retail benchmark. The analysis includes regression discontinuity, permutation nulls, and a 17‑rule methodology canon to validate the findings.
By T. J. Barton, Chris Constantakis, Patti Hauseman, Annie Mous, Alaska Hoffman, Brian Bergeron, Hunter Goodreau
AStockArena is a real‑time decision‑auditing benchmark for continuous trading in China’s A‑share market, evaluating 13 open‑ and closed‑source models over 3,198 sequential decisions. The benchmark reconstructs actual account actions by aligning reports, trade requests, execution responses, and account states, then audits them with eight checks covering execution traceability, evidence sufficiency, and financial meta‑awareness. Across 1,070 trading points, 72.99% show at least one audit gap, with evidence gaps most common, and historical replay demonstrates that flagged trades significantly affect portfolio outcomes.
By Zeyu Liu, Sing Kwong Lai, Xuanzhi Feng, HaoYang Shang, Yang Li, Zihao Fang, Xuan Liu
FIDES-Live extends the FIDES framework to audit sequential trading agents by separating decision validity, numerical commitment adherence, execution and ledger reconciliation, and receipt‑grounded reporting. In a retrospective audit of 7,299 cryptocurrency account‑rounds and a 310‑round equity pilot, decision validity reached 97.35% and structured reporting accuracy 90.81%, while commitment adherence overall was 94.36% but dropped to 62.63% for non‑empty order proposals. The study shows that all cash and position transitions reconcile with recorded fills, and highlights the need to report concordance, evidence coverage, activity, and financial outcomes separately.
By Arther Tian, Alex Ding, Simon Wu, Aaron Chan
arXiv:2607. 19453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs.
By Ayoub Jadouli
arXiv:2606. 31522v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous financial agents initialized with explicit behavioral mandates such as "preserve capital" or "avoid speculative bets" that are meant to govern every decision throughout deployment.
By Muhammad Usman Safder (Steve), Ayesha Gull (Steve), Rania Elbadry (Steve), Fan Zhang (Steve), Yankai Chen (Steve), Xueqing Peng (Steve), Xue (Steve), Liu, Preslav Nakov, Zhuohan Xie
Sequential trading agents produce decisions, orders, execution receipts, account states, and reports that need not agree, even when the final portfolio value is correctly computed. We present FIDES-Li...