arXiv Computation and Language By Yunxiang Mo, Donghao Zhao, Hejia Geng

Stable Answers, Unfinished Reasoning: Why Self-Consensus Is Not a Safe Early-Exit Signal

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The paper investigates whether self-consensus—stopping a reasoning model when its partial trajectory’s answers agree—can safely reduce inference cost. A large sweep of 3,520 consensus rules on two models and three benchmarks failed to meet predefined safety criteria, while a boundary‑confidence control (DEER) succeeded. The study shows that agreement signals that an answer persists under a fixed probing procedure, not that reasoning has finished, leading to premature stops and missed corrections even when token savings are significant.

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