This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws. To avoid such predictions, Carl Hempel proposed the Requirement of Maximal Specificity (RMS) for the statistical laws used in the inference.
arXiv:2501. 05844v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of research in statistics and machine learning in recent years, promising computational techniques to reveal ``true'' causality.
By Vyacheslav Kungurtsev, Leonardo Christov Moore, Gustav Sir, Martin Krutsky
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
arXiv:2606. 08532v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Modern artificial intelligence excels at prediction but cannot explain.
By Lei Lin, Xinlong Pan, Ronghao Wang, Chunbao Zhou, Jue Wang, Yangang Wang, Ivana Rasovska
arXiv:2609.26037v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Explanations are central to causal reasoning, and cognitive science has long established that the human drive to explain is itself a mechanism for lear...
By Nicholas Tagliapietra, Florian Peter Busch, Moritz Willig, Matej Ze\v{c}evi\'c, Lavdim Halilaj, Juergen Luettin, Kristian Kersting
arXiv:2608. 03868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges.
By Abhinav Thorat, Ravi Kumar Kolla, Vishak K Bhat, Harsh Vardhan Singh Chauhan, Niranjan Pedanekar