The paper introduces a new estimand for conditional distributional treatment effects that captures how treatments influence the entire outcome distribution, including variance and tail risks, in a covariate-dependent manner. It presents a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal locally and uses it to construct a test for global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions. The test accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy, guarantees valid type‑1 error, is consistent against fixed alternatives, and includes a computationally efficient, permutation‑free algorithm with exact closed‑form expressions for two natural discrepancies.
By Saksham Jain, Alex Luedtke
arXiv:2607. 03999v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATE) requires simultaneously detecting effect modification and quantifying estimation uncertainty.
By Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Josephine Chiang, Karthik Nagesh
arXiv:2609.22383v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument gen...
By Zixuan Yao, Guosheng Yin
arXiv:2604. 00915v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is relevant for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term observational datasets are often combined with long-term observational datasets.
By Haorui Ma, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel
arXiv:2609.26142v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW), targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), and double/debiased machine learning (DML) are three r...
By M. Ehsan Karim
The paper introduces a new framework for identifying average dose-response functions in the presence of unmeasured confounding by using instrumental variables. It defines a uniform regular weighting function and partitions the treatment space into open sets where local identification is possible. For estimation, the authors propose an augmented inverse probability weighted score within a debiased machine learning setting, along with practical guidance for constructing weighting functions, falsification tests for the additive IV condition, and asymptotic theory for kernel regression or empirical risk minimization estimators.
By Shuyuan Chen, Peng Zhang, Yifan Cui