arXiv:2609.27051v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Language-model agents now run the whole of quantitative factor research: they propose investment factors, backtest them, select the survivors and retir...
By Bo Qu, Mingguang Chen, Licheng Wang
Language-model agents now run the whole of quantitative factor research: they propose investment factors, backtest them, select the survivors and retire them. We ask which of those jobs an agent shoul...
The paper introduces World Reward Models (WRMs), a new approach for machine‑learning agents that selects the best candidate program directly from execution results instead of predicting intermediate outcomes. WRMs, exemplified by the ForeCritic model, are trained on thousands of executed program pairs and achieve a 79.4% success rate in choosing the better program, outperforming general‑purpose LLM judges. When integrated into systems like AIDE, ML‑Master, and ForeAgent, ForeCritic reduces mean task time by 4.4–7.5× while maintaining or improving overall performance.
By Yuxiao Lee, Zherui Yang, Fan Liu, Hao Liu
arXiv:2607. 17765v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events.
By Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason Xu
The paper "rTaste: Do Research Agents Have Taste? Evaluating Early Stage Research Judgment" investigates whether advanced language models can act as research agents that propose and rank minimum viable experiments (MVEs) for recent NLP papers. Six frontier models were given seven papers and tasked with forecasting experiment outcomes and ranking them; a separate executor ran all MVEs and auditors evaluated the results. Of 415 MVEs, 194 were deemed sound, valuable, and new, but only 73 were judged beyond the seed paper and non‑obvious; while agents’ first choices matched auditors’ top picks more often than random, they did not outperform simple heuristics, and team models added cost without clear quality gains.
"whyItMatters":"The study provides a dataset and evaluation harness for assessing AI‑driven research planning, highlighting both the potential and current limitations of using language models as research agents."
Vendster is an evaluation arena that studies how the bias and prediction‑interval width of time‑series forecasters influence the outcomes of buyer‑vendor discount negotiations conducted by large language model (LLM) agents. In its reference instance, Vendster‑M5, forecasts generated by LLMs increased sales target attainment by up to 17 percentage points, yet traditional forecast accuracy metrics did not predict negotiation success. Controlled experiments revealed that under‑prediction bias significantly improves outcomes for agents that react strongly to forecasts, while interval width has no notable effect when bias is zero.
By Charin Polpanumas