Optimal detection of general moment changes: Simultaneous mean and covariance change detection and beyond
Read the original on arXiv Statistics ML →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Statistics ML.
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The paper introduces a sequential change‑point detection method for time‑ordered data where neither the pre‑ nor post‑change distributions have closed forms. It trains a conditional diffusion model on pre‑change data, uses its probability flow ODE to map observations to a Gaussian latent space, and then applies the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as a test statistic. The authors derive closed‑form components under the Gaussian null, establish the statistic’s asymptotic distribution as a degenerate U‑statistic, and implement an online Shiryaev–Roberts procedure with exact threshold calibration to detect arbitrary distributional shifts without parametric assumptions.
arXiv:2609. 15479v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies the detection of multiple simultaneous (systematic) change points for high-dimensional nonstantionary economic and financial time series data.
arXiv:2606. 01256v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper introduces a distribution-free framework for constructing post-detection confidence sets for changepoints after stopping a sequential change detection procedure.
arXiv:2608. 19767v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Skchange is an open-source Python library for detecting structural changes in time series.
skchange is an open‑source Python library that provides fast and flexible algorithms for detecting structural changes in time series. It offers modular, composable methods based on cost minimisation and statistical tests, and includes features such as anomalous segment detection, high‑dimensional data support, automatic penalty calibration, and a wide range of built‑in costs and tests. The library follows scikit‑learn conventions and uses Numba for high computational performance, with source code and documentation available on GitHub.
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