arXiv AI By Haowen Shi, Xuzhe Yan, Fahao Chen, Peng Li

On the Fundamental Limits of Prefill-Based Decoding Length Prediction

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The paper investigates the limits of predicting how many tokens a large language model will generate using only prefill-phase hidden states. It shows that current benchmarks mix predictor quality with task difficulty, leading to unstable accuracy when models, datasets, or sampling settings change. By modeling decoding as a stopped stochastic process, the authors derive bounds and an affine variance law that explain the observed normality of per‑prompt decode lengths and confirm that system error dominates model error.

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