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Modeling an AI jobs transition

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A new framework analyzes 921 occupations and 148 million U. S.

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arXiv AI
Jul 23

Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks

arXiv:2604. 01363v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based.

By Matthias Mertens, Adam Kuzee, Brittany S. Harris, Harry Lyu, Wensu Li, Jonathan Rosenfeld, Meiri Anto, Martin Fleming, Neil Thompson
arXiv AI
Jul 22

Global Automation Atlas

arXiv:2605. 17086v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Automation can displace or complement labour, but this need not be constant across economies.

By Prashant Garg, Tommaso Crosta, Jasmin Baier
arXiv AI
Aug 24

Who Delegates to AI? Evidence from 53,000 Agent Configurations

The paper introduces the Agentic Adoption Index (AAI), a new metric that captures whether workers actually delegate tasks to AI within their workflows, rather than merely measuring potential AI applicability. Using 53,000 agent skill specifications and 18,000 O*NET task statements, the authors find that occupations with high delegation differ from those previously deemed most at risk, that AAI aligns more closely with AI’s capabilities than current usage, and that adoption peaks at mid‑wage, bachelor’s‑level occupations while declining at both ends of the wage and education spectrum. The study highlights that technical availability explains much of the variation, but other factors—such as resistance to specification or professional discretion—also influence who adopts AI. whyItMatters":"The findings suggest that actual AI adoption patterns differ from prior risk assessments, indicating that factors beyond technical feasibility shape who delegates to AI, which has implications for workforce planning and policy."

By Hyeongjae Lee, Jihyang Cheon, Lanu Kim