Hugging Face Trending Papers
Metric Conformal Prediction via the Conditional Expected Local Radius
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arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 23
Metric Conformal Prediction via the Conditional Expected Local Radius
The paper introduces the conditional expected local radius (CELR), a new tool for measuring local conditional probability concentration in general metric spaces. Using CELR, the authors develop a conformal prediction method that works for non‑Euclidean responses, accommodates heterogeneity and multimodality without requiring densities or vector‑space structure, and avoids costly transport comparisons. The method is implemented via a metric distributional random forest that handles multivariate covariates and nonlinear interactions, yielding uniform consistency, asymptotic conditional validity, and finite‑sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, while also providing substantial computational savings compared to existing approaches.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11
Projected random forests and conformal prediction of circular data
arXiv:2410. 24145v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We apply conformal prediction techniques to regression problems with circular responses, producing prediction sets with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage guarantees for any circular predictive model under the assumption of data exchangeability.
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Sep 21
Beyond Point Prediction: Artificial Representative Trees with Uncertainty
Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models...
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 1
Beyond Uncertainty Sets: Leveraging Optimal Transport to Extend Conformal Predictive Distributions to Multivariate Settings
arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22
Beyond Point Prediction: Artificial Representative Trees with Uncertainty
arXiv:2609.24528v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs...
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 1
Elements of Conformal Prediction
arXiv:2603.23923v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution an...