arXiv AI By Guanghao Wu, Zhuo Cai, Shoujin Wang

MemTrial: Learning When to Trust Memory in LLM Portfolio Agents

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MemTrial is a portfolio‑management agent that learns when to trust its memory of past experiences. It evaluates each experience by drafting decisions with and without that experience, using a fractional factorial design to compute a Banzhaf‑value credit that isolates the experience’s true impact. By pooling noisy credits across dates with a hierarchical Bayesian model and only acting when predictions are reliable, MemTrial outperforms other experience‑learning agents and remains conservative when uncertain, achieving up to 21.2% higher utility and outperforming all LLM baselines on InvestorBench.

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