The paper introduces a plug‑and‑play framework called Dynamics‑Precipitation Decoupling that employs a diffusion generator to convert non‑precipitation forecasts from a frozen weather model into observation‑aligned daily precipitation. The generator is conditioned on atmospheric states and satellite‑gauge precipitation estimates, using a multi‑scale recurrent encoder and cross‑attention to capture heterogeneous rainfall distributions and align daily accumulations with evolving atmospheric signals. Experiments on global and regional datasets, including a heavy‑rainfall case study in China, show that the method improves daily precipitation accuracy, event detection, and localized accumulation patterns compared to several baseline weather models and ensemble forecasts.
By Guowen Li, Yang Liu, Mengxuan Chen, Jiashun Cheng, Haoyuan Liang, Shilei Cao, Yujie Wang, Juepeng Zheng, Fang Wang, Yerong Feng, Meng Jin, Hong Cheng, Yutong Lu, Haohuan Fu
arXiv:2610.28327v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present the Observation Assimilation Transformer (OAT), a geometry-aware neural process that corrects and refines a prior numerical weather predicti...
By Christian Donner, Michele Cattaneo, Maxim Samarin, Francesco Zanetta, Ic\'iar Llor\'ens Jover, Garbiela Aznar Siguan, Michele Volpi
arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.
By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
arXiv:2607. 17511v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains.
By Wentao Gao, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu, Thuc Duy Le, Jixue Liu, Yanchang Zhao, Yun Chen
arXiv:2510. 20769v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models.
By Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney, Jingyin Tang, Tim Smith, Janice Bytheway
arXiv:2609.39833v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Extreme rainfall events are increasing in intensity and frequency as climate change accelerates. While kilometer-scale precipitation forecasts are crit...
By Pierre-Louis Lemaire, Luca Schmidt, Wietze Suijker, Alex Hernandez-Garcia, David Rolnick